A review of climate change, mitigation and adaptation

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RenewableandSustainableEnergyReviews

journalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/rser

Areviewofclimatechange,mitigationandadaptation

S.VijayaVenkataRamana,S.Iniyanb,∗,RankoGoicc

a

DepartmentofMechanicalEngineering,CollegeofEngineering,AnnaUniversity,Chennai,IndiaInstituteforEnergyStudies,AnnaUniversity,Chennai,Indiac

DepartmentofElectricalEngineering,MechanicalEngineeringandNavalArchitecture,UniversityofSplit,Split,Croatia

b

article

info

abstract

Articlehistory:

Received13December2010

Receivedinrevisedform19August2011Accepted7September2011

Available online 29 October 2011

Keywords:

ClimatechangeGlobalwarming

MitigationandadaptationCarbonsequestration

CleandevelopmentmechanismEmissiontradingPolicies

Globalclimatechangeisachangeinthelong-termweatherpatternsthatcharacterizetheregionsoftheworld.Scientistsstateunequivocallythattheearthiswarming.Naturalclimatevariabilityalonecannotexplainthistrend.Humanactivities,especiallytheburningofcoalandoil,havewarmedtheearthbydramaticallyincreasingtheconcentrationsofheat-trappinggasesintheatmosphere.Themoreofthesegaseshumansputintotheatmosphere,themoretheearthwillwarminthedecadesandcenturiesahead.Theimpactsofwarmingcanalreadybeobservedinmanyplaces,fromrisingsealevelstomeltingsnowandicetochangingweatherpatterns.Climatechangeisalreadyaffectingecosystems,freshwatersupplies,andhumanhealth.Althoughclimatechangecannotbeavoidedentirely,themostsevereimpactsofclimatechangecanbeavoidedbysubstantiallyreducingtheamountofheat-trappinggasesreleasedintotheatmosphere.However,thetimeavailableforbeginningseriousactiontoavoidsevereglobalconsequencesisgrowingshort.Thispaperreviewsassessingofsuchclimatechangeimpactsonvariouscomponentsoftheecosystemsuchasair,water,plants,animalsandhumanbeings,withspecialemphasisoneconomy.Themostdauntingproblemofglobalwarmingisalsodiscussed.Thispaper,furtherreviewsthemitigationmeasures,withaspecialfocusoncarbonsequestrationandcleandevelopmentmechanism(CDM).Theimportanceofsynergybetweenclimatechangemitigationandadaptationhasbeendiscussed.Anoverviewoftherelationshipbetweeneconomyandemissions,includingCarbonTaxandEmissionTradingandthepoliciesarealsopresented.

© 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contents1.2.

3.

4.

5.

Introduction..........................................................................................................................................Assessingtheimpactsofclimatechange............................................................................................................2.1.Air,water,plantsandanimals................................................................................................................2.2.Economy......................................................................................................................................2.3.Agriculture....................................................................................................................................2.4.Health.........................................................................................................................................Globalwarming......................................................................................................................................3.1.Globalwarmingpotential....................................................................................................................3.2.Economy......................................................................................................................................Mitigation............................................................................................................................................4.1.Economyofmitigation.......................................................................................................................Carbonsequestration................................................................................................................................5.1.Oceanandgeologicalsequestration..........................................................................................................5.2.Agriculturalsoils.............................................................................................................................5.3.Soilorganiccarbon(SOC)....................................................................................................................5.4.Forests........................................................................................................................................

5.4.1.Afforestation........................................................................................................................

5.5.Miscellaneous................................................................................................................................

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∗Correspondingauthor.Tel.:+914422531070;fax:+914422353637.E-mailaddress:iniyan777@hotmail.com(S.Iniyan).

1364-0321/$–seefrontmatter© 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.doi:10.1016/j.rser.2011.09.009

S.VijayaVenkataRamanetal./RenewableandSustainableEnergyReviews16 (2012) 878–897

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5.6.Interrelationshipwithbiodiversityandsustainabledevelopment..........................................................................5.7.Economicaspects.............................................................................................................................6.Cleandevelopmentmechanism.....................................................................................................................

6.1.CDM-AR.......................................................................................................................................7.Mitigationandadaptation...........................................................................................................................8.Economyandemissions.............................................................................................................................

8.1.Carbontax....................................................................................................................................8.2.Emissiontrading..............................................................................................................................9.Policies...............................................................................................................................................

9.1.Influenceofscienceandtechnology.........................................................................................................9.2.Influenceofsustainabledevelopment.......................................................................................................10.Conclusion..........................................................................................................................................

References...........................................................................................................................................

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1.Introduction

Climatechangereferstoastatisticallysignificantvariationineitherthemeanstateoftheclimateorinitsvariability,persist-ingforanextendedperiod(typicallydecadesorlonger).Climatechangemaybeduetonaturalinternalprocessesorexternalforc-ing,ortopersistentanthropogenicchangesinthecompositionoftheatmosphereorinland-use.Climatechangehaslong-sinceceasedtobeascientificcuriosity,andisnolongerjustoneofmanyenvironmentalandregulatoryconcerns.

EversincetheIndustrialRevolutionbeganabout150yearsago,man-madeactivitieshaveaddedsignificantquantitiesofgreenhousegases(GHGs)totheatmosphere.AcordingtotheThirdAssessmentReportonclimatechange2001oftheIntergovermentalPanelonclimatechange,theatmosphericconcentrationsofcar-bondioxide,methane,andnitrousoxidehavegrownbyabout31%,151%and17%,respectively,between1750and2000.AnincreaseinthelevelsofGHGscouldleadtogreaterwarming,which,inturn,couldhaveanimpactontheworld’sclimate,leadingtothephenomenonknownasclimatechange.Indeed,scientistshaveobservedthatoverthe20thcentury,themeanglobalsurfacetem-peratureincreasedby0.6◦C.Theyalsoobservedthatsince1860(theyeartemperaturebegantoberecordedsystematicallyusingathermometer),the1990shavebeenthewarmestdecade.Itisagrowingcrisiswitheconomic,healthandsafety,foodproduc-tion,security,andotherdimensions.Shiftingweatherpatterns,forexample,threatenfoodproductionthroughincreasedunpre-dictabilityofprecipitation,risingsealevelscontaminatecoastalfreshwaterreservesandincreasetheriskofcatastrophicflood-ing,andawarmingatmosphereaidsthepole-wardspreadofpestsanddiseasesoncelimitedtothetropics.Thenewstodateisbadandgettingworse.Ice-lossfromglaciersandicesheetshascontinued,leading,forexample,tothesecondstraightyearwithanice-freepassagethroughCanada’sArcticislands,andacceleratingratesofice-lossfromicesheetsinGreenlandandAntarctica.Combinedwiththermalexpansion–warmwateroccu-piesmorevolumethancold–themeltingoficesheetsandglaciersaroundtheworldiscontributingtoratesandanultimateextentofsea-levelrisethatcouldfaroutstripthoseanticipatedinthemostrecentglobalscientificassessment.Thereisalarm-ingevidencethatimportanttippingpoints,leadingtoirreversiblechangesinmajorecosystemsandtheplanetaryclimatesystem,mayalreadyhavebeenreachedorpassed.EcosystemsasdiverseastheAmazonrainforestandtheArctictundra,forexample,maybeapproachingthresholdsofdramaticchangethroughwarm-inganddrying.Mountainglaciersareinalarmingretreatandthedownstreameffectsofreducedwatersupplyinthedriestmonthswillhaverepercussionsthattranscendgenerations.Climatefeed-backsystemsandenvironmentalcumulativeeffectsarebuildingacrossEarthsystemsdemonstratingbehaviorswhichcannotbeanticipated.

TheEarth’sclimatehaschangedthroughouthistory.Justinthelast650,000yearstherehavebeensevencyclesofglacialadvanceandretreat,withtheabruptendofthelasticeageabout7000yearsagomarkingthebeginningofthemodernclimateera–andofhumancivilization.MostoftheseclimatechangesareattributedtoverysmallvariationsinEarth’sorbitthatchangetheamountofsolarenergyourplanetreceives.

Theevidenceforrapidclimatechange(IPCCFourthAssessmentReport)iscompelling:

(1)Sea-levelrise:Globalsea-levelroseabout17cm(6.7in.)inthe

lastcentury.Therateinthelastdecade,however,isnearlydoublethatofthelastcentury.

(2)Globaltemperaturerise:Mostofthiswarminghasoccurred

sincethe1970s,withthe20warmestyearshavingoccurredsince1981andwithall10ofthewarmestyearsoccurringinthepast12years.

(3)Warmingoceans:Theoceanshaveabsorbedmuchofthis

increasedheat,withthetop700m(about2300ft.)ofoceanshowingwarmingof0.302◦Fahrenheitsince1969.

(4)Shrinkingicesheets:TheGreenlandandAntarcticicesheets

havedecreasedinmass.DatafromNASA’sGravityRecoveryandClimateExperimentshowGreenlandlost150–250km3(36–60cubicmiles)oficeperyearbetween2002and2006,whileAntarcticalostabout152km3(36cubicmiles)oficebetween2002and2005.

(5)DecliningArcticseaice:BoththeextentandthicknessofArctic

seaicehasdeclinedrapidlyoverthelastseveraldecades.

(6)Glacialretreat:Glaciersareretreatingalmosteverywhere

aroundtheworld–includingintheAlps,Himalayas,Andes,Rockies,AlaskaandAfrica.

(7)Oceanacidification:SincethebeginningoftheIndustrialRev-olution,theacidityofsurfaceoceanwatershasincreasedbyabout30%.Theamountofcarbondioxideabsorbedbytheupperlayeroftheoceansisincreasingbyabout2billiontonsperyear.

TheincreasingtrendofCO2emissions,ArcticseaIce,CO2con-centration,sealevelandglobalsurfacetemperatureisshowninFigs.1–5respectively.

SeptemberArcticiceisnowdecliningatarateof11.5%perdecade.ArcticseaicereachesitsminimuminSeptember.TheSeptember2010extentwasthethirdlowestinthesatelliterecord.TherearelotsofinitiativestakenbydifferentcountriesandorganizationslikeUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononCli-mateChange(UNFCCC),UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP)andIntergovermentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),inmitigatingandadaptingtotheglobalclimatechange.Themostimportantmitigationmeasuresincludecarbonsequestration,cleandevelopmentmechanism,jointimplementationandmost

880S.VijayaVenkataRamanetal./RenewableandSustainableEnergyReviews16 (2012) 878–897

Fig.1.CO2(ppm)trendoveryears.

Source:NASAsatellitedata.

Fig.2.Arcticsea-icelevel.

Source:NASAsatelliteobservations.

Fig.3.Carbondioxideconcentrationlevel.

Source:NASAsatelliteobservations.

S.VijayaVenkataRamanetal./RenewableandSustainableEnergyReviews16 (2012) 878–897

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Fig.4.Sealevel.

Source:NASAsatelliteobservations.

Fig.5.Globaltemperaturevariation.

Source:NASAsatelliteobservations.

importantlyuseofrenewableandnon-pollutingsourcesofenergylikesolar,windandgeothermalenergysources.

2.Assessingtheimpactsofclimatechange

Theever-increasingemissionsofgreenhousegasesfromvarioussourceshasledtocatastrophicclimatechangesincludingthewellpronounced‘globalwarming’.SergePlantonetal.givesanoverviewoftheexpectedchangeofclimateextremesduringthiscenturyduetogreenhousegasesandaerosolanthropogenicemissionslikedecreasingnumberofdaysoffrost,increasinggrowingseasonlength,trendsfordroughtdurationandchangeofwind-relatedextremes[1].Thedramaticchangethatthearctichasundergoneduringthepastdecadeincludingatmosphericsea-levelpressure,windfields,sea-icedrift,icecover,lengthofmeltseason,changeinprecipitationpatterns,changeinhydrology,changeinoceancur-rentsandwatermassdistributionwerestudiedbyMacdonaldetal.[2].Thenear-surfacethermalregimeinpermafrostregionscouldchangesignificantlyinresponsetoanthropogenicclimatewarm-ing[3].AscenarioofchainoftransitionsinthesolarconvectivezonewassuggestedbyBershadskii,inordertoexplaintheobser-vationsofincreaseinsunspotsnumberandaforecastforglobal

warmingwasalsosuggestedonthebasisofthisscenario[4].With15casestudiesinthecatchmentsofUK,NigelW.Arnellfoundthattheeffectsofclimatechangeonaverageannualrunoffdependontheratioofaverageannualrunofftoaverageannualrainfall,withthegreatestsensitivityinthedriestcatchmentswithlowestrunoffcoefficients[5].HirstexaminedtheresponseoftheSouthernoceantoglobalwarming,foratransientgreenhousegasintegra-tionusingtheCommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation(CSIRO)coupledocean–atmospheremodel[6].GlobalwarmingcausedbyenhancedgreenhouseeffectislikelytohavesignificanteffectsonthehydrologyandwaterresourcesoftheGBM(Ganges,Brahmaputra,Meghna)basinsandmightultimatelyleadtomoreseriousfloodsinBangladesh,India[7].MohammedFazlulKarimandNobuoMimurausedacalibratednumericalhydrody-namicmodeltostimulatesurgewavepropagationthroughtheriversandoverlandflooding,todescribetheimpactsofclimatechangenamelytheseasurfacetemperatureandsea-levelriseoncyclonicstormsurgefloodinginwesternBangladesh,India[8].TheAsianPacificIntegratedModel(AIM)isalarge-scalemodelforsce-narioanalysesofgreenhousegasemissionsandtheimpactsofglobalwarmingintheAsianPacificregion.YuzuruMatsuokaetal.categorizedthescenariosthathavebeenwrittensofarinrelationto

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globalwarmingandthen,givenfixedinputs,simulatestheeffectsofglobalwarmingtakingintoaccountvariousuncertaintiesusingAIM[9].vanMinnenetal.presentedanewmethodologycalledthe“criticalclimatechange”approachforevaluatingthepoliciesforreducingclimatechangeimpactsonnaturalecosystems[10].

2.1.Air,water,plantsandanimals

Thefutureevolutionoftheconcentrationofnear-surfacepol-lutantsdeterminingairqualityatascaleaffectinghumanhealthandecosystemsisasubjectofintensescientificresearch.RobertVautardandDidierHauglustaine,basedonthisthematicissue,reviewedthecurrentscientificknowledgeoftheconsequencesofglobalclimatechangeonregionalairqualityanditsrelatedimpactonthebiosphereandonhumanmortality.Thechangesintheglobalatmosphericcomposition,changesintheregionalairqualityandtheorganizationofthethematicissueofnear-surfacepollutantsthatdeterminestheairquality[11].Mooijetal.hypothesizedthatclimatewarmingandclimate-inducedeutroph-icationwillincreasethedominanceofcyanobacteriaandclimatechangewillalsoaffectshallowlakesthroughachanginghydrol-ogyandthroughclimatechange-inducedeutrophication,usingtwomodelsnamelythefullecosystemmodelPCLakeandamin-imaldynamicmodeloflakephosphorusdynamics[12].Delplaetal.explainedtheclimatechangeimpactsonwaterqualitybyreviewingthemostrecentinterdisciplinaryliteratureandcon-cludedthatadegradationtrendofdrinkingwaterqualityinthecontextofclimatechangeleadstoanincreaseofatrisksitua-tionsrelatedtopotentialhealthimpact[13].Wrightetal.usedtheMAGICmodeltoevaluatetherelativesensitivityofseveralpos-sibleclimate-inducedeffectsontherecoveryofsoilandsurfacewaterfromacidificationandsuggeststhatthefuturemodelingofrecoveryfromacidificationshouldtakeintoaccountpossiblecli-matechangesandfocusespeciallyontheclimate-inducedchangesinorganicacidsandnitrogenretention[14].Asimplemethodol-ogyforassessingthesalinationriskforanywatermanagementsituationandunderglobalwarmingconditionswaspresentedbyAngelUtsetandMatildeBorroto,wherethephysicallybasedSWAP(Soil–Water–Atmosphere–Plantenvironment)modelwasusedtopredictfuturewatertabledepthsafterirrigationbeginsandunderglobalwarmingconditions[15].Estimatingtheimpactsofclimatechangeongroundwaterrepresentsoneofthemostdifficultchal-lengesfacedbythewaterresourcespecialists.PascalGoderniauxetal.providedanimprovedmethodologyfortheestimationoftheimpactsofclimatechangeongroundwaterreserves,whereaphys-icallybasedsurface–subsurfaceflowiscombinedwithadvancedclimatechangescenariosfortheGeerbasin,Belgiumusingfiniteelementmodel‘HydroGeoSphere’[16].Thechangeinclimateislikelytohaveaprofoundeffectonhydrologicalcycleviz.precip-itation,evapotranspirationandsoilmoisture,evapotranspiration(ET)beingthemajorcomponentofhydrologicalcyclewillaffectcropwaterrequirementandfutureplanningandmanagementofwaterresources.AnattempthasbeenmadebyGoyaltostudythesensitivityofETtoglobalwarmingforaridregionsofRajasthan,India.WeeklyreferenceevapotranspirationwascalculatedusingthePenman–Monteithmethodandthestudyrevealedthatevenassmallas1%increaseintemperaturefrombasedatacouldresultinanincreaseinevapotranspirationby15mm,whichmeansanaddi-tionalwaterrequirementof34.275mcmforJodhpurdistrictaloneand313.12mcmforwholearidzoneofRajasthan.Theincreasedevapotranspirationdemandduetoglobalwarmingcanputtremen-douspressureonexistingoverstressedwaterresourcesofthisregionandsincethisregionisdevoidofanyperennialriversystem,anyincreaseinwaterdemandrequirescarefulplanningforfuturewaterresourcedevelopmentinthisregion.Thestudyprovidedacontemporaryviewonfuturewaterrequirementofthisregionin

contextofglobalwarming[17].WiththeglobalclimatechangedataprovidedbytheIPCCfromthefirstversionoftheCanadianGlobalCoupledModel(CGCMI),GISbasedEPICisrunbyGuoxinTanandRyosukeShibasaki,forscenariosoffutureclimateintheyearof2010,2020,2030,2040and2050topredicttheeffectsofglobalwarmingonmaincropyieldsandtheresultsshowedthattheglobalwarmingwillbeharmfulformostofthecountriesandanefficientadaptationtoalternativeclimatestendstoreducethedamages[18].Goudieoutlinedthatfutureglobalwarminghasanumberofimplicationsfor‘fluvialgeomorphology’becauseofchangesinsuchphenomenaasratesofevapotranspiration,precip-itationcharacteristics,plantdistributions,plantstomatalclosure,sealevels,glacierandpermafrostmeltingandhumanresponses[19].Savingtropicalforestsasaglobalwarmingcounter–mea-surehasbecomeoneoftheenvironment’smostdivisiveissues,accordingtoFearnside[20].TheimpactsofGHGemissionsonfor-estecosystemshavebeentraditionallytreatedseparatelyforairpollutionandclimatechange.AndrzejBytnerowiczetal.reviewedthelinksbetweenairpollutionandclimatechangeandtheirinter-activeeffectsonnorthernhemisphereforests[21].Rangelimitsofmanyplantspeciesareexpectedtoshiftdramaticallyifclimatewarming,drivenbythereleaseofGHG,occursinthenextcentury.SimulationmodelsarepresentedbyDyer,whichincorporatetwofactors,land-usepatternandmeansofdispersal,toassesspoten-tialresponsesofforestspeciestoclimatewarming[22].Wildlifemanagersfacethedauntingtaskofmanagingwildlifeinlightofuncertaintyaboutthenatureandextentoffutureclimatechangeandvariabilityanditspotentialadverseimpactsonwildlife.TonyPratodevelopedaconceptualframeworktomanagewildlifeundersuchuncertainty,whichusesafuzzylogictotesthypothesesabouttheextentofthewildlifeimpactsofpastclimatechangeandvari-abilityandfuzzymultipleattributeevaluationtodeterminebestcompensatorymanagementactionsforadaptivelymanagingthepotentialadverseimpactsoffutureclimatechangeandvariabilityonwildlife[23].

2.2.Economy

TheimpactsofGHGemissionsandtheresultingclimatechangehaveaseriousimpactontheglobaleconomy.TheFuturesofGlobalInterdependence(FUGI)globalmodelingsystemhasbeendevelopedasascientificpolicysimulationtoolofprovidingglobalinformationtothehumansocietyandfindingoutpossibilitiesofpolicycoordinationamongcountriesinordertoachievesustain-abledevelopmentoftheglobaleconomyundertheconstraintsofrapidlychangingglobalenvironment.TheFUGIglobalmodelM200classifiestheworldinto200countries/regionswhereeachnational/regionalmodelisgloballyinterdependentthroughoilprices,energyrequirements,internationaltrade,export/importprices,financialflows,ODA,privateforeigndirectinvestment,exchangerates,stockmarketpricesandglobalpolicycoordination,etc.AkiraOnishistudiedthefuturesofglobaleconomyundertheconstraintsofenergyrequirementsandCO2emissionsupto2020aswellasstrategyforsustainabledevelopmentoftheinterdepen-dentglobaleconomy.InordertocutbackglobalCO2emissions,itisnecessarytoconfrontdilemmaofsustainabledevelopmentoftheglobaleconomy.Asurprisingproposalmadebylimitstogrowth(1972)iszerogrowthoftheglobaleconomy.Iftheglobaleconomywillconfrontwithzerogrowth,itseemslikelytoinduceglobalcrisessuchasGreatDepressionin1930s.ZerogrowthmaycutbackCO2emissionsbutcouldnotsolvetrade-offbetweenenvironmentissuesanddesirabledevelopmentoftheglobaleconomy.

AlternativesimulationbyFGMS(FUGIglobalmodelingsystem)revealedthatcutbacksofglobalCO2emissionsshouldbepre-requisiteagainstglobalwarming.InordertocutbackglobalCO2emissions,itshouldbeneededforinternationalco-operationand

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co-ordinationofdevelopmentstrategy.EvenifEUandJapanwillco-operateandco-ordinatethepoliciestowardcutbackofCO2emissionsbytechnologyinnovationsfordevelopingalternativeenergyandenergysavings,itcouldnotachievetheglobaltargetswithoutco-operationwiththemajorCO2emissionnationssuchasUS,China,RussianFederation.InordertodecreaseglobalCO2emis-sions,thedevelopingcountriesshouldjoinasagroupandshouldpromoteofficialdevelopmentassistance(ODA),inparticular,tech-nicalco-operationtothedevelopingcountries.Technologytransferfromtheadvancedtodevelopingcountriesarepre-requisiteforachievingthetargetofcutbackglobalCO2emissions.AdvancedeconomiesshouldmakeutmosteffortstoincreaseR&Daswellasinvestmentsforalternativeenergyandenergysavings.TheFUGIglobalmodelsimulationsaffirmedthatnotonlyincreasedR&DtogetherwithinvestmentswillincreaseratesofdevelopmentofglobaleconomybutalsodecreaseglobalCO2emissions[24].Evi-denceoftheimpactsofanthropogenicclimatechangeonmarineecosystemsisaccumulating,butmustbeevaluatedinthecontextofthe“normal”climatecyclesandvariabilitywhichhavecausedfluctuationsinfisheriesthroughouthumanhistory.Theimpactsonfisheriesareduetoavarietyofdirectandindirecteffectsofanumberofphysicalandchemicalfactors,whichincludetem-perature,winds,verticalmixing,salinity,oxygen,pHandothers.Thedirecteffectsactonthephysiology,developmentrates,repro-duction,behaviorandsurvivalofindividuals.Indirecteffectsactviaecosystemprocessesandchangesintheproductionoffoodorabundanceofcompetitors,predatorsandpathogens.KeithBran-derreviewedtherecentstudiesoftheeffectsofclimateonprimaryproductionandevaluatedtheconsequencesforfisheriesproduc-tionthroughregionalexamplesnamelyNorthAtlantic,TropicalPacificAntarticandLakeTanganyika.RegionalexamplesnamelyNorthSea,BalticandNorthAtlanticarealsousedtoshowchangesindistributionandphenologyofplanktonandfish,whichareattributedtoclimate.Theroleofdiscontinuousandextremeevents(regimeshifts,exceptionalwarmperiods)wasalsodiscussed[25].Harleetal.madeastudyontheimplicationsofclimatechangeontheAustralianwoolindustry,principallythroughonforageandwaterresources,landcarryingcapacityandsustainability,animalhealthandcompetitionwithothersectors,particularlycropping[26].MariaBerrittellaetal.studiedtheeconomicimplicationsofclimatechange-inducedvariationsintourismdemand,usingaworldComputableGeneralEquilibrium(CGE)model.Themodelwasfirstre-calibratedatsomefutureyears,obtaininghypotheti-calbenchmarkequilibria,whichweresubsequentlyperturbedbyshocks,simulatingtheeffectsofclimatechange.Theimpactofcli-matechangeontourismwasportrayedinthisstudybymeansoftwosetsofshocks,occurringsimultaneously.Thefirstsetofshockstranslatespredictedvariationsintouristflowsintochangesofconsumptionpreferencesfordomesticallyproducedgoods.Thesecondsetreallocateincomeacrossworldregions,simulatingtheeffectofhigherorlowertourists’expenditure.Theanalysishigh-lightsthatvariationsintouristflowswillaffectregionaleconomiesinawaythatisdirectlyrelatedtothesignandmagnitudeofflowvariations.Ataglobalscale,climatechangewillultimatelyleadtoawelfareloss,unevenlyspreadacrossregions.Despitethecruderesolutionoftheanalysismade,whichhidesmanyclimatechange-inducedshiftsintouristdestinationchoices,itwasfoundthatclimatechangemayaffectGDPby−0.3–0.5%in2050.Eco-nomicimpactestimatesofclimatechangearegenerallyintheorderof−1–2%ofGDPforawarmingassociatedwithadou-blingoftheatmosphericconcentrationofcarbondioxide,whichistypicallyputatalaterdatethan2050.Asthesestudiesexcludetourism,thisimpliesthatregionaleconomicimpactsmayhavebeenunderestimatedbymorethan20%.Thestudyindicatesthattheglobaleconomicimpactofaclimatechange-inducedchangeintourismisquitesmall,andapproximatelyzeroin2010,butin2050,

climatechangewillultimatelyleadtoanon-negligiblegloballoss[27].SusanneBeckenanalyzedtheadaptationtoclimatechangebytouristresortsinFiji,aswellastheirpotentialtoreduceclimatechangethroughreductionsinCO2emissions[28].KoetseandPietRietveldpresentedasurveyofempiricalliteratureontheeffectsofclimatechangeonthetransportsectorandthenetimpactongeneralizedcostsandeconomyofvarioustransportmodesaredis-cussed[29].RaduZmeureanuandGuillaumeRenaudpresentedamethodfortheestimationofclimatechangeontheeconomyoftheheatingenergyuseofexistinghouses[30].

2.3.Agriculture

RobertMendelsohnexaminedthelikelyimpactonagricultureoftheclimatechangewhichhasalreadytakenplacebetween1960and2000,whentheglobaltemperaturerisewas0.25◦C,causingtheprecipitationpatternstoshiftandthecross-sectionalandcropsimulationevidence,temperature,precipitationandCO2responsefunctionsareusedtocalculatetheimpactsonagriculture[31].TheimplicationsforagricultureofmitigatingGHGemissionsandbywhenandbyhowmucharetheimpactsreducedwasinves-tigatedbyTubielloaandGuntherFischeraanditwasfoundthatmitigationcouldpositivelyimpactagriculture[32].BernardTin-keretal.addressedthequestionsoftowhatextentslashandburnofagricultureisresponsibleandhowlandconversionofthistypewillaffecttheclimatesystem,includingitsimpactonlocalandregionalhydrology[33].Rivingtonetal.arguedthatanIntegratedAssessment(IA)approach,combiningsimulationmod-elingwithdeliberativeprocessinvolvingdecisionmakersandotherstakeholders,hasthepotentialtogeneratecredibleandrelevantassessmentsofclimatechangeimpactsonfarmingsystems[34].Chakrabortyetal.foundthat,despitethesignificanceofweatheronplantdiseases,comprehensiveanalysisofhowclimatechangewillinfluenceplantdiseasesthatimpactprimaryproductioninagricul-turalsystemsispresentlyunavailableandimprovementstoassessdiseaseimpactsismandatory[35].TrudieDockertyetal.exploredthepossibilityofinterpretingclimatechangeimpactsinformationofagriculturallandscapeinNorfolkthroughGISbasedvisualiza-tions[36].Guntheretal.investigatedthepotentialchangesinglobalandregionalagriculturalwaterdemandwithinanewsocio-economicscenario,A2r,developedattheInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemAnalysis(IIAS)withandwithoutclimatechange,withandwithoutmitigationofGHGemissions[37].Despitetheimportanceoflivestocktopoorpeopleandthemagnitudeofthechangesthatarelikelytobefalllivestocksystems,theintersec-tionofclimatechangeandlivestockindevelopingcountriesisarelativelyneglectedresearcharea.Littleisknownabouttheinterac-tionsofclimateandincreasingclimatevariabilitywithotherdriversofchangeinlivestocksystemsandinbroaderdevelopmenttrends.Inmanyplacesinthetropicsandsubtropics,livestocksystemsarechangingrapidly,andthespatialheterogeneityofhouseholdresponsetochangemaybeverylarge.Thorntonetal.brieflyreviewedtheliteratureonclimatechangeimpactsonlivestockandlivestocksystemsindevelopingcountries.Theimpactofclimatechangeonlivestockintermsofquantityandqualityoffeeds,heatstress,water,livestockdiseasesandvectors,biodiversityandsys-temsandlivelihoodswerestudied.Forinstance,whiletheresponseoflivestocktoknownincreasesintemperatureispredictable,intermsofincreaseddemandforwater,attemptstoquantifytheimpactsofclimatechangeonwaterresourcesintheland-basedlivestocksystemsindevelopingcountriesarefraughtwithuncer-tainty,particularlyinsituationswheregroundwateraccountsforasubstantialportionofthesupplyofwatertolivestock,whichisthecaseinmanygrazingsystems.Inadditiontothedirectimpactsofachangingclimateonmanyaspectsoflivestockandlivestocksystems,therearevariousindirectimpactsthatcanbeexpectedto

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impingeonlivestockkeepersindevelopingcountries.Oneofthemostsignificantoftheseistheimpactonhumanhealth.Aswithlivestockdiseases,thechangeswroughtbyclimatechangeoninfec-tiousdiseaseburdensmaybeextremelycomplex,whichwasalsostudiedbriefly[38].

2.4.Health

Thepotentialimpactsofclimatechangeonhumanhealtharesignificant,rangingfromdirecteffectssuchasheatstressandflood-ing,toindirectinfluencesincludingchangesindiseasetransmissionandmalnutritioninresponsetoincreasecompetitionforcropandwaterresources.Huntingfordetal.addressedthisissuebyargu-ingthatclosercollaborationbetweentheclimatemodelingandhealthcommunitiesisrequiredandtheclimate–healthmodelsim-ulationswillprovidetheneededestimatesofthelikelyimpactsofclimatechangeonhumanhealth[39].KhasnisandNettlemanstud-iedthatglobalwarmingwillcausechangesintheepidemiologyofinfectiousdiseasesandthevector-bornediseaseswillbecomemorecommonastheearthwarms[40].Theeconomicimpactsofclimatechange-inducedchangeinhumanhealth,viz.cardiovascu-larandrespiratorydisorders,diarrhea,malaria,denguefeverandschistosomiasiswerestudiedbyFrancescoBoselloetal.[41].Theglobalincreaseinsurfacetemperature(globalwarming)wasfoundtoimpactonmortalitythroughillhealth,particularlyamongtheelderly,insummerandPretietal.exploredtheimpactofglobalwarmingonsuicidemortality,usingthedatafromItaly[42].

3.Globalwarming

Globalwarmingisaprobleminwhichthecombustionofcoal,oilandotherfossilfuelscausestheatmosphericconcentrationsofGHGssuchascarbondioxide,toincrease.Thisresultsinmountingglobalairtemperaturesthatleadtoclimatechange.Specifically,globalwarmingwillcauseariseinsealevels,changesintherainfallpatternsandotherproblems.

Thereareconcernsthattherapiddevelopmentofthedevelop-ingcountrieswillhastenglobalwarmingandexacerbateresourceproblems.ButYasuhiroMurotaandKokichiItoattemptedtoshowthat,onthecontrary,thefastdevelopmentofthesecountriesmightverywellbringaboutalong-termsolutionoftheglobalwarmingproblem[43].DuttaandRoymodeledtheglobalwarmingprocessasadynamiccommonsgameinwhichtheplayersarecountries,theiractionsateachdateproduceemissionsofGHGsandthestatevariableisthecurrentstockofGHGsandacompletetheoreti-calcharacterizationisprovidedforthebestequilibriumanditisshownthatithasaverysimplestructure,involvingaconstantemissionratethroughtime[44].AlessioAlexiadisusedthecon-troltheorytostudytheconnectionbetweenhumanactivitiesandglobalwarming.AfeedbackmechanismisproposedandtestedagainsttemperatureandCO2concentrationhistoricaldata,consid-eringfourscenariosandtheresultsshowedthateveninthecaseofdramaticreductionoftheanthropogenicCO2emission,thetemper-aturewillnotdecreaseforacertaintimeandalthoughthesystematthemomentisstable,itisveryclosetobecomingunstablewithunpredictableconsequencesonclimatechange[45].Honjorecom-mendedthatinadditiontoenergyrelatedR&D,alsoimportantaretheR&DforCO2absorptionandfixationforfundamentalsolutiontoglobalwarming[46].EvaluationmethodsofglobalwarmingarepresentedbyAkiraSekiya,consideringthedirectwarmingeffectofchemicalcompoundsandofdecomposedcompounds,warmingeffectduetotheformationoftroposphereozoneandthecoolingeffectduetothedecompositionofstratosphereozone[47].Kumaretal.assessedthemethaneemissioninventoryfrommunicipalsolidwastedisposalsitesandexpressedthatthereisaneedto

studytheever-increasingcontributionofsolidwastetotheglobalGHGeffect[48].

3.1.Globalwarmingpotential

Inordertoquantitativelycomparethegreenhouseeffectofdif-ferentgreenhousegases,aglobalwarmingpotential(GWP)indexhasbeenusedwhichisbasedontheratiooftheradioactiveforcingofanequalemissionoftwodifferentgases,integratedeitherover-alltimeoruptoanarbitrarilydeterminedtimehorizon.TheGWPindexisanalogoustotheOzoneDepletingPotential(ODP)index.AnalternativeGWPindexwasproposedbyDannyHarvey,whichexplicitlytakesintoaccountthedurationofcapitalinvest-mentsintheenergysectorandislesssensitivetouncertaintiesinatmosphericlifespansandradiativeheatingthanusualGWPindexfortimehorizonslongerthanthelifespanofcapitalinvest-mentandtheeffectofthisalternateGWPindexproposedhereisthat,comparedwithpreviousindices,istoshiftattentionawayfromshortlivedgasessuchasmethaneandtowardCO2[49].TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)usedGWPstostandardizeinputsofdifferentgaseswithdifferingradiativeforc-ingsandatmosphericlifetime.AnalternativeunifiedindexwasproposedbyFearnsidethatassignsexplicitweightstotheinter-estsofdifferentgenerations[50].AsimplemodelwasusedbyKoetal.,toillustratethemethodologyfordeterminingthetimevaria-tionsoftheradiativeforcingandtemperaturechangesattributabletothedirectgreenhouseeffectfrompotentialemissionsofthehalo-carbons,usedextensivelyasanalternatetoCFCs[51].TapscottandDouglasMatherproposedthatincorporationofcertainmolec-ularfeaturesintofluorocarbonscandecreasethetroposphericlifetime,providingcommerciallyapplicablechemicalswithlowglobalwarmingandstratosphericozoneimpacts[52].Drageetal.measuredthehighresolution(0.03/cm)absoluteinfraredphotoabsorptioncross-sectionsofbromotrifluoromethane(CF3Br)andtetrafluoroethylene(C2F4)usingFourier–transformedinfrared(FTIR)spectroscopyattemperaturesbetween213and296Kandthemeasuredcross-sectionsweresubsequentlyusedtoestimatetheradiativeforcingsandtheGWPsofthesetwospecies[53].Tat-suruShirafugietal.preparedlowdielectricconstantfluorinatedamorphouscarbonfilmsfromthelowGWPgasofC5F8byacapaci-tivelycoupledplasmaenhancedchemicalvapordepositionmethod[54].

3.2.Economy

In-TaeJeongaandKun-MoLeeproposedanassessmentmethodforecodesignimprovementoptionsusingglobalwarmingandeco-nomicperformanceindicators,theglobalwarmingperformanceindicatorastheexternalcostwhichconvertstheexternaleffectofglobalwarmingintoamonetaryvalue,inordertomeasuretheperformanceoftheGHGreductionoftheproductandthelifecyclecostoftheproductwaschosenastheeconomicperformanceindicator,withLCDpanelasacasestudy[55].Economicanaly-sesofglobalwarminghavetypicallybeengroundedinthetheoryofeconomicefficiency.WoodwardandBishopdevelopedasimpleeconomicmodelwhichdemonstratedthatanefficienteconomyisnotnecessarilyasustainableeconomyandthenconsideredthepolicyalternativestoaddressglobalwarminginthecontextofeconomieswiththedualobjectivesofefficiencyandsustainability,withparticularattentiontocarbonbasedtaxes[56].AlfredGreinerandWilliSemmlerpresumedasimpleendogenousgrowthmodelwhereglobalwarmingaffectseconomicgrowthandanalyzedthedynamicsofthecompetitiveeconomyandofthesocialoptimum[57].Usingthetopicalissueofglobalwarmingasanillustration,itwasarguedthattheecologicalisationoftheeconomicsdisci-plinechallengesthefoundationsofthestrategythat“continued

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relianceonanunreconstructedneo-classicaleconomicmodelforhumanprogressislargelyresponsibleforaneconomicdevelop-mentpathwhichisbothunsustainableandundemocratic”,amongotherbenefits,amoredemocraticglobaleconomicorganization[58].LarryKarpanalyzedthetime-consistentMarkovPerfectequi-libriuminageneralmodelwithastockpollutantandthesolutiontothelinearquadraticspecializationillustratedtheroleofhyperbolicdiscountinginamodelofglobalwarming[59].

4.Mitigation

TheTriptychapproachisamethodforallocatingfutureGHGemissionreductionsamongcountriesunderapost-2012interna-tionalclimatemitigationregimebasedontechnologicalcriteriaatthesectorlevelandaccountingforstructuraldifferences.AnewTriptychapproachwaspresentedbyMicheldenElzenetal.,whichisarefinementofanearlierversionintermsofanincreasedtransparencyandallowingadelayedparticipationfordevelopingcountries[60].Thedoublingofatmosphericmethaneoverthelasttwocenturiesmaycontributetoglobalwarming,enhanceforma-tionoftroposphericozone,suppressOHandaffectstratosphericozonebutthecalculationsdonebyThompsonetal.showedthatstabilizationofCH4couldreduceprojectedtemperatureincreasesandpossiblymitigatebackgroundtroposphericozoneincreasesduetoincreasinglevelsofCH4[61].MicheldenElzenetal.pre-sentedasetoftechnicallyfeasiblemulti-gasemissionpathways(envelopes)forstabilizingGHGconcentrationat450,550and650ppmCO2equivalentandtheirtrade-offsbetweendirectabate-mentcostsandprobabilitiestomeettemperaturetargets[62].TimJacksonpresentedamethodologyforcomparingthecost-effectivenessofdifferenttechnicaloptionsfortheabatementofGHGemissionsandthismethodologyallowsadeterminationoftheextenttowhicheachtechnologycancontributetoabatementbyaspecifieddate[63].KeigoAkimotoetal.developedanintegratedassessmentmodel,DNE21,composedofthreesub-modelsvizanenergysystem,amacroeconomicandaclimatechangemodelandthesimulationresultsindicatedthattheoptimalmitigationstrategyagainstglobalwarmingshouldbecomprehensiveimple-mentationofthevariousoptions,amongwhichenergysavingintheend-usesectorsisimportantthroughoutthe21stcenturyandCO2sequestrationisafterthemiddleofthecentury[64].Preiningconcludedfromhisstudythatclimatemodelingrequiresthefullinclusionofaerosols,takingintoaccounttheannualcarbonemis-sionsofthesame[65].VanVuurenanddeVriesdevelopedtwodifferentmitigationscenariosforstabilizingcarbondioxidecon-centrationat450ppmv×2100,basedontherecentlydevelopedB1baselinescenario(partoftheIPCCSpecialReportonEmissionScenarios)andpredictedthatinthefirst/secondquarterofthiscen-turymostofthereductionwillcomefromenergyefficiencyandfuelswitchingoptionsandlaterontheintroductionofcarbon-freesupplyoptionswillaccountforthebulkoftherequiredreduc-tions[66].JosSijmetal.presentedanewsector-basedframework,calledthemulti-sectorconvergenceapproach(MSC),fornegotiat-ingbindingnationalGHGmitigationtargetsafterthefirstbudgetperioddefinedbytheKyotoProtocol(2008–2012)andthemethod-ologyandmajorcharacteristicsoftheMSCapproachwasoutlined,followedbysomenumericalillustrations[67].SannaSyrietal.assessedtheachievementpossibilitiesoftheEU2◦CclimatetargetwiththeETSAPTIAMglobalenergysystemsmodelandcalcu-latedthecost-effectiveglobalandregionalmitigationscenariosofcarbondioxide,methane,nitrousoxideandF-gaseswithalterna-tiveassumptionsonemissionstradingandpredictedthatinthemitigationscenarios,a85%reductioninCO2emissionsisneededfromthebaselineandverysignificantchangesintheenergysys-temtowardsemission-freesourcestakeplaceinthiscentury[68].

MitigatingglobalclimatechangerequiresnotonlygovernmentactionbutalsocooperationfromconsumersandthequalitativedataanalyzedbySemenzaetal.indicatedthatthereareanum-berofcognitive,behavioralandstructuralobstaclestovoluntarymitigation[69].ThefindingsofStoll-Kleemannetal.suggestedthatmoreattentionneedstobegiventothesocialandpsycho-logicalmotivationsastowhyindividualserectbarrierstotheirpersonalcommitmenttoclimatechangemitigation,evenwhenprofessinganxietyoverclimatefutures[70].DaliaStreimikieneandStasysGirdzijauskasaanalyzedthepost-Kyotoclimatechangemitigationregimesandtheirimpactonsustainabledevelopment.Widerangeofpost-Kyotoclimatechangemitigationarchitectureshavedifferentimpactondifferentgroupsofcountries,thereforesustainabilityassessmentwasperformedforfourmaingroupofcountries:EUandotherAnnex-Icountries,USA,advanceddevel-opingcountriesandleastdevelopedcountries.Thepost-Kyotoclimatechangemitigationregimeswereevaluatedbasedontheireconomical,environmental,socialandpoliticalimpactfordiffer-entgroupsofcountriesandscoringwasappliedforassessment.ThearchitecturesincludingTargetsandTimetables,harmonizeddomesticpoliciesandmeasures,resourcetransferfromdevelopedcountriestodeveloping,sustainabledevelopmentpoliciesindevel-opingcountries,werefurtherrankedaccordingtothebestresultsorhighestscoreobtainedduringassessmentaccordingtoallcri-teriaandforallgroupsofcountries.Theanalysisconcludedthatatpresentmostassessmentsofclimatechangemeasuresarepar-tialandincomplete.Amoreholisticassessmentagainsteconomic,socialandenvironmentaldimensionsofsustainabledevelopmentcalled3A’s(acceptability,availabilityandaccessibility)developedbyWorldEnergyCouncilwouldnotonlyensurethatthemeasureswerelikelytobemoreeffectiveinawidersenseinpromotingsustainabledevelopment,butwouldalsohelpmakethemmoreviableinanarrowersense,thatis,moreacceptabletothoseaffectedandthereforeeasiertointroduceandgetsupportedandthusmorelikelytoachievetheirgoals.Basedontheanalysisofinternationalpost-Kyotoclimatechangemitigationregimesaccordingto3A’sthemostsuitablefutureregimewouldbeflexibleemissionreduc-tiontargetsviacontinuingKyotoapproach.Thisapproachprovidesthehighestadvantagesrelativetothecriticalcriteriaofsustainableenergydevelopment:acceptability,accessibilityandavailabilityforallgroupsofcountries[71].

4.1.Economyofmitigation

ThedebateoverthecostsofGHGemissionmitigationhasbecomemorecomplexrecentlyasdisagreementsovertheexis-tenceofeconomicandenvironmentaldoubledividendshavebeenaddedtodiscussionsovertheexistenceofanegativecostpotential.

Industrializedcountriesmayreducetheircostsofmeetingcar-bonconstraintsiftheypenalizefuelsnotonlyonthebasisoftheircarbonintensitybutalsoonthebasisoftheirimport–export[72].HadiDowlatabadiusedsimplerepresentationsofendogenousandinducedtechnicalchangetoexplorethesensitivityofmitigationcostestimatestohowtechnicalchangeisrepresentedinenergyeconomicsmodel[73].Chandleretal.summarizedselectedstudiesofthepotentialandcostofcarbonemissionsmitigationstrate-giesinthepost-plannedeconomies[74].AlexanderRoehrlandKeywanRiahianalyzedthelong-termGHGemissionsandtheirmitigationinafamilyofhigheconomicandenergydemandgrowthscenariosinwhichtechnologicalchangeunfoldsinalternativepathdependantdirections[75].KristenHalsnaesdiscussedmethod-ologicallessonsandempiricalresultsofclimatechangemitigationassessmentfordevelopingcountrieswithaspecialemphasisoneconomicstudies.Nationalstudyresuitswerediscussedinrela-tiontoexpectedgeneralinternationaldevelopmenttrendsingreenhousegasemissions.Itwasconcludedthatgreenhousegas

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emissionsfromdevelopingcountriescertainlywillincreaseinthefutureduetoeconomicdevelopmentneeds.Thereishow-everalargeandrelativelycheappotentialforemissionreductionsconnectedtoefficiencyimprovementsinindustrialproductionandgeneralenergyefficiencyimprovementsinthecountries.Theimplementationofgreenhousegasmitigationstrategiesisinter-relatedwithgeneralnationaleconomicdevelopmentpolicies.Themacroeconomicimpactofimplementingclimatechangemitiga-tionstrategieswasassessedonthebasisoftwocasestudiesforZimbabweandVenezuelaanditisconcludedthatprojectimple-mentationandeconomicwelfareimprovementinsomecasescanbeachievedsimultaneously.Themethodologicalbasisformacroeconomicassessmentandfortheestablishmentofbase-linescenarioswerecriticallydiscussedinrelationtothespecificplanningcontextofdevelopingcountriesandrecommendationswerealsogivenonresearchrequirements.Despitedifferencesinmethodologicalapproachesbottom–upCO2emissionreductioncostingstudiescarriedoutfortheenergysectorofdevelopingcountriesexhibitsomecommonresultsnamely(i)the30–40yearreferencescenarioprojectionsshowatendencytodecreas-ingenergy/GDPintensity,butincreasingCO2/energyintensity,(ii)thepotentialfora30–40%emissionreductionfrombaselineovera40-yeartimeframehasbeenestimated.However,evenaftersuchareductionisrealized,emissionswillonaveragebetwoorthreetimesgreaterthanpresentlevelsbecauseofeconomicgrowthand(iii)theemissionreductionpotentialincludeslow/negativecostoptionsrelatingtoenduseandconventionalsupplytechnologiesintheshorttomediumterm.Inthe30–40yeartimeframe,theUNEPcountrystudieshaveestimatedaverageemissionreductioncoststobebelowUS$14/tonneofCO2[76].ValentinaBosettietal.investi-gatedthebestshort-termstrategiesthatemergingeconomiescanadoptinreactingtoOECDcountries’mitigationeffort,giventhecommonlong-termgoaltopreventexcessivewarmingwithouthamperingeconomicgrowth[77].HarriLaurikkaandUrsSpringerpresentedaframeworkforevaluatingtherisksofinvestmentsinclimatechangemitigationprojectstogenerateemissioncreditsandalsoproposedamethodologyforquantifyingriskandreturnofsuchinvestments,discussdatarequirementsandillustrateitusingasampleofvoluntaryprojects[78].UrsSpringerusedamean-varianceapproachtocomputetheinternationalportfoliosofcarbonabatementactivitiesthatbalancelowabatementcostsandinvestmentrisks[79].Jean-CharlesHourcadeandJohnRobinsonunderlinedtheimportanceofthetimingofdecisionsfordetermin-ingthecostsofGHGemissionsmitigation[80].

5.Carbonsequestration

Carbonsequestrationisanimportanttechnologyforthemain-tenanceofoptimumCO2levelintheatmosphere,whichinturnresultsintheclimatechangemitigation.Atushikurosawahaddoneasensitivityanalysisofthecostsofcarbonsequestrationandtherelativeimportanceofsequestrationtechnologywasassessedinalong-termcarbonmanagementframeworkandsuggestedthatcarbonrecoverywithoceanandgeologicalsequestrationcouldbeincludedamongtheavailablecarbonabatementtech-nologiesanditsabatementpotentialissensitivetothecarbontransportandstoragecostassumption[81].DavidGerardandWil-sonexploredaparticularlydiceyissue–howtoensureadequatelong-termmonitoringandmaintenanceofthecarbonsequestra-tionsites,withaspecialmentionofbondingmechanisms[82].LionelRagotandKathelineSchubertmodeledtheasymmetryofthesequestration/de-sequestrationprocessatamicrolevelandofitsconsequencesatamacrolevel,takingexplicitlyintoaccountthetemporalityofsequestrationandshowedthatwiththeseassump-tionssequestrationmustbepermanent[83].

5.1.Oceanandgeologicalsequestration

Although,ithasreceivedrelativelylittleattentionasapoten-tialmethodofcombatingclimatechangeincomparisontoenergyreductionmeasuresanddevelopmentofcarbon-freeenergytech-nologies,sequestrationofcarbondioxideingeologicorbiosphericsinkshasenormouspotential.Grimstonetal.reviewedthepoten-tialforsequestrationusinggeologicalandoceanstorageasameansofreducingcarbondioxideemissions.Thereareconcernsaboutpossibleenvironmentaleffectsoflarge-scaleinjectionofcarbondioxideespeciallyintotheoceans.Availabletechnologies,espe-ciallyofseparatingandcapturingthecarbondioxidefromwastestream,havehighcostsatpresent,perhapsrepresentinganaddi-tional40–100%ontothecostsofgeneratingelectricity.Inmostoftheworldtherearenomechanismstoencouragefirmstocon-sidersequestration.ThestudyindicatesthatconsiderableR&Disrequiredtobringdownthecostsofprocess,toelucidatetheenvi-ronmentaleffectsofstorageandtoensurethatcarbondioxidewillnotescapefromstoresinunacceptablyshorttimescales[84].Israelssonetal.evaluatedtheexpectedenvironmentalimpactofseveralpromisingschemesforoceansequestrationbydirectinjec-tionofcarbondioxideandconcludedfromtheanalysisthatoceancarbonsequestrationbydirectinjectionshouldnotbedismissedasaclimatechangemitigationstrategyonthebasisofenvironmentalimpactaloneanditcanbeconsideredasaviableoptionforfurtherstudy,especiallyinregionswheregeologicalsequestrationprovesimpractical[85].Chowetal.presentedthestrategiesforproducingnegativelybuoyantcarbondioxidehydratecompositeparticlesforoceancarbonsequestration[86].Thephytoplanktonoftheupperoceanremovecarbondioxidefromtheatmospherebyphotosyn-thesisandthisoceanuptakeofcarbondioxideislimitedbytheavailabilityofnitrogenintheupperwatersovermuchoftheglobalocean.Thecostofprovidingthisneedednitrogentotheupperoceanfromapilotplantwithacapacitytosequester2,000,000tonnesofcarbondioxideperyearisexaminedbyJonesandOtaegui[87].

Geologiccarbonsequestrationistheinjectionofanthropogeniccarbondioxideintodeepgeologicformationswhereitisintendedtoremainindefinitely.Ifsuccessfullyimplemented,geologiccarbonsequestrationwillhavelittleornoimpactonterrestrialecosystemsasidefromthemitigationofclimatechange.

PriceandOldenburgproposedthattheregulationsforthesitingofearlygeologiccarbonsequestrationprojectsshouldemphasizelimitingtheconsequencesoffailurebecausetheconsequencesareeasiertoquantifythanfailureprobability[88].Acomputation-allyefficientsemi-analyticalcodeCQUESTRAhasbeendevelopedbyLeNeveuforprobabilisticriskassessmentandrapidscreeningofpotentialsitesforgeologicalsequestrationofcarbondioxideandthesensitivityanalysisofCQUESTRAindicatedthatcriteriasuchassitingbelowaquiferswithlargeflowratesandsitinginreservoirshavingfluidpressurebelowthepressureofthefor-mationsabovecanpromotecompletedissolutionofthecarbondioxideduringmovementtowardthesurface,therebypreventingreleaseintothebiosphere[89].Theproductsofforsteritedis-solutionandtheconditionsfavorableformagnesiteprecipitationhavebeeninvestigatedbyGiammaretal.,inexperimentscon-ductedattemperatureandpressureconditionsrelevanttogeologicCsequestrationindeepsalineaquifers[90].TheU.S.Environmen-talProtectionAgencyhasdevelopedaVulnerabilityEvaluationFramework(VEF)forthegeologicsequestrationofcarbondioxidewhichcanbeusedasareferencetoinformsite-specificassess-mentsandriskmanagementdecisions[91].Oldenburgetal.havedevelopedaCertificationFramework(CF)forcertifyingthesafetyandeffectivenessofgeologiccarbonsequestrationsites,byrelatingtheeffectivetrappingtocarbondioxideleakageriskwhichtakesintoaccountboththeimpactandprobabilityofleakage[92].KeigoAkimotoetal.analyzedthecostofthegeologicalstorageofCO2

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inJapaninordertoconsiderfutureresearch,developmentanddeployment[93].

5.2.Agriculturalsoils

Carbonsequestrationindegradedagriculturalsoilsindevelop-ingcountriestomitigateatmosphericgreenhousegasconcentra-tionsisincreasinglypromotedasapotentialwin–winstrategy[94].Acomprehensiveanalysisincorporatingecologic,geographicandeconomicdatawasusedbyThomsonetal.todeveloptheterrestrialcarbonsequestrationestimatesforagriculturalsoilcarbon,refor-estrationandpasturemanagement,estimatingthecontributionofterrestrialsequestrationoverthenextcenturyas23–41GtC[95].Pandeysuggestedthatagroforestrysystemsareabetterclimatechangemitigationoptionthanoceanicandotherterrestrialoptionsbecauseofthesecondaryenvironmentalbenefitssuchasfoodsecurity,securedlandtenure,increasingfarmincome,restoringandmaintainingtheabove-groundandbelow-groundbiodiver-sity,maintainingwatershedhydrologyandsoilconservation[96].AlainAlbrechtandKandjianalyzedthecarbonstoragedatainsometropicalagroforestrysystemsanddiscussedtheroletheycanplayinreducingtheconcentrationofCO2intheatmosphere[97].KarenUpdegraffetal.designedasystemcalledC-Locktopro-ducestandardizedcarbonemissionreductioncredits(CERCs)thatminimizelitigationriskstopurchasersandmaximizethepoten-tialvaluetoagriculturalproducersi.e.C-Lockisanonlinesystemtostandardizetheestimationofagriculturalcarbonsequestrationcredits[98].JohnAntleetal.developedmethodstoinvestigatetheefficiencyofalternatecontractsforcarbonsequestrationincroplandsoils,takingintoaccountthespatialheterogeneityofagriculturalproductionsystemsandthecostsofimplementingmoreefficientcontracts[99].BiosphericcarbonsinksandsourcescanbeincludedinattemptstomeetemissionreductiontargetsduringthefirstcommitmentperiodoftheKyotoProtocol.Forestmanagement,croplandmanagement,grazinglandmanagementandre-vegetationareallowableactivitiesunderArticle3.4oftheKyotoProtocol.Soilcarbonsinks(andsources)can,therefore,beincludedundertheseactivities.TheroleofcroplandsinEuro-peancarbonbudgetandthepotentialforcarbonsequestrationinEuropeancroplandsandthentheglobalcontextpertainingtothesamewerereviewedbyPeteSmith.CroplandsareestimatedtobethelargestbiosphericsourceofcarbonlosttotheatmosphereinEuropeeachyear,butthecroplandestimateisthemostuncertainamongallland-usetypes.ItwasestimatedthatEuropeancrop-lands(forEuropeasfareastastheUrals)lose300MtCperyear.ThemeanfigurefortheEuropeanUnionisestimatedtobe78(S.D.37)MtCperyear.ThereissignificantpotentialwithinEuropetodecreasethefluxofcarbontotheatmospherefromcropland,andforcroplandmanagementtosequestersoilcarbon,relativetotheamountofcarbonstoredincroplandsoilsatpresent.Thebiologi-calpotentialforcarbonstorageinEuropean(EU15)croplandisoftheorderof90–120MtCperyearwitharangeofoptionsavail-ableincludingreducedandzerotillage,set-aside,perennialcropsanddeeprootingcrops,moreefficientuseoforganicamendments(animalmanure,sewagesludge,cerealstraw,compost),improvedrotations,irrigation,bioenergycrops,extensification,organicfarm-ing,andconversionofarablelandtograsslandorwoodland.Thesequestrationpotential,consideringonlyconstraintsonland-use,amountsofrawmaterialsandavailableland,isupto45MtCperyear.Therealisticpotentialandtheconservativeachievablepoten-tialsmaybeconsiderablylowerthanthebiologicalpotentialduetosocio-economicandotherconstraints,witharealisticallyachiev-ablepotentialestimatedtobeabout20%ofthebiologicalpotential.Aswithothercarbonsequestrationoptions,potentialimpactsonnon-CO2tracegasesneedtobefactoredin.Soilcarbonseques-trationisariskierlong-termstrategyforclimatemitigationthan

directemissionreductionandcanplayonlyaminorroleinclos-ingcarbonemissiongapsby2100[100].Theeffectofalternativeharvestingpracticesonlong-termecosystemproductivityandcar-bonsequestrationwasinvestigatedbyBradSeelyetal.,withtheecosystemsimulationmodelFORECAST[101].

5.3.Soilorganiccarbon(SOC)

Oneofthemostimportantterrestrialpoolsforcarbonstor-ageandexchangewithatmosphericCO2issoilorganiccarbon(SOC).Follettfeltthatinthefuture,itisimportanttoacquireanimprovedunderstandingofSOCsequestrationprocesses,theabil-itytomakequantitativeestimatesofratesofSOCsequestrationandthetechnologytoenhancetheseratesinenergyandinputefficiencymanner[102].Yangetal.evaluatedtheinfluenceofsoildepthandsamplenumbersonSOCsequestrationinno-tillage(NT)andmold-boardplow(MP)cornandsoyabeanproductionsystems,withthreelong-termfieldtrialsinhumidregionsofCanadaandUSA.ThefirsttrialwasconductedonaMaryhillsiltloam(TypicHapludalf)atElora,Ontario,Canada,thesecondonaBrookstonclayloam(TypicArgiaquoll)atWoodslee,Ontario,Canada,andthethirdonaThorpsiltloam(ArgiaquicArgialboll)atUrbana,Illinois,USA.No-tillageledtosignificantlyhigherSOCconcentrationsinthetop5cmcom-paredtoMPatallthreesites.However,NTresultedinsignificantlylowerSOCinsubsurfacesoilsascomparedtoMPatWoodslee(10–20cm,P=0.01)andUrbana(20–30cm,P<0.10).No-tillagehadsignificantlymoreSOCstoragethanMPattheElorasite(3.3MgCha−1)andattheWoodsleesite(6.2MgCha−1)onanequivalentmassbasis(1350Mgha−1soilequivalentmass).Similarly,NThadgreaterSOCstoragethanMPattheUrbanasite(2.7MgCha−1)onanequivalentmassbasisof675Mgha−1soil.However,thesedifferencesdisappearedwhentheentireplowlayerwasevaluatedforboththeWoodsleeandUrbanasitesasaresultofthehigherSOCconcentrationsinMPthaninNTatdepth.Usingtheminimumdetectabledifferencetechnique,weobservedthatupto1500soilsamplepertillagetreatmentcomparisonwillhavetobecollectedandanalyzedfortheEloraandWoodsleesitesandover40soilsam-plespertillagetreatmentcomparisonfortheUrbanatostatisticallyseparatesignificantdifferencesintheSOCcontentsofsub-plowdepthsoils.Therefore,itisimpracticable,andattheleastpro-hibitivelyexpensive,todetecttillage-induceddifferencesinsoilCbeyondtheplowlayerinvarioussoils.ItisconcludedthatalthoughNTpracticesarefoundtofavorSOCgaininthenear-surfacelayersofsoil,differencesintheamountofSOCbetweenNTandMPpracticesmayalsooccurindeeperdepths(evenbelowtheplowlayer)[103].Yadavetal.usedtheSoilWaterAssessmentTool(SWAT)waterqualitymodel,theWaterErosionPredictionProject(WEPP)ero-sionmodelandtheCENTURY4.0asoilcarbonmodel,tostimulatethecarbonsequestrationratesfor160crop-tillagerotationsin272sub-basinsoftheBigCreekwatershedandconcludedthatdevel-opingmodel-basedestimatesofSOCsequestrationratesoffieldpracticesatmanylocationswouldthusgreatlyservetheneedsofcarboncreditingprograms[104].Thesignificanceofdifferentvari-ablesonGHGproductionandsoilCsinkcapacitywasinvestigatedbyMondinietal.,bymonitoringCO2andN2OfluxesfromamendedsoilsunderlaboratoryconditionsandreportedthattheCconserva-tionefficiencyoforganicresidues,calculatedbythecombinedlossduringcompostingandafterlandapplicationwashigherforthelesstransformedorganicmaterials[105].AfforestationofagriculturalecosystemsandforestplantationscanenhanceSOCstockthroughCsequestration[106].ParrandSullivanexaminedtheroleoftheorganiccarbonoccludedwithinphytoliths(referredasphytOC)incarbonsequestrationinsomesoilsandtheprocessfollowedofferstheopportunitytouseplantspeciesthatyieldhighamountsofphy-tOCtoenhanceterrestrialcarbonsequestration[107].Hutchinsonetal.exploredtheglobalpotentialofaerablesoilsbyusingthe

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datafromselectedregionsespeciallytheCanadianPrairiesandtheTropics,consideringthefactthatsoilCsequestrationisasignificantmitigationoption[108].ShresthaandLalworkedontherestora-tionofthedepletedSOCpoolsofreclaimedminesoil(RMS),whichcanbedonethroughtheconversiontoanappropriateland-useandadoptionofrecommendedmanagementpractices(RMPs)[109].

5.4.Forests

Onestrategyformitigatingtheincreaseinatmosphericcarbondioxideistoexpandthesizeoftheterrestrialcarbonsink,partic-ularlyforests,essentiallyusingtreesasbiologicalscrubbers.TheKyotoprotocoltotheframeworkconventiononclimatechangeincludesmanyprovisionsforforestandland-usecarbonsequestra-tionprojectsandactivitiesinitssignatories’overallGHGmitigationplans.

KennethandKristerexplainedthedifficultythatevenimpartialanalystshaveinassessingthecarbonoffsetbenefitsofprojects,whichwhencombinedwithself-interest,asymmetriesofinfor-mationandlargenumbers,preventstoaproject-basedforestandland-usecarboncreditprogrammaybeinsurmountable[110].SofiaBackeusetal.presentedanoptimizationmodelforanaly-sisofcarbonsequestrationinforestbiomassandforestproductsatalocalorregionalscaleandconcludedthatassigningcarbonstorageamonetaryvalueandremovalofcarboninforestprod-uctsasacostincreasesthecarbonsequestrationintheforest[111].Informationonsoilcarbonsequestrationanditsinterac-tionwithnitrogenavailabilityisratherlimited,sincesoilprocessesaccountforthemostsignificantunknownsintheCandNcycles.Onaccountofthis,MolDijkstraetal.comparedthreecompletelydif-ferentapproachestocalculatecarbonsequestrationinforestsoilsnamelylimit-valueconcept(annuallitterfall×recalcitrantfractionofthedecomposingplantlitter),N-balancemethod(Nretentioninthesoil×presentsoilC/Nratio)anddynamicSMART2model[112].TimoKarjalainenetal.studieddifferentscenariosforcar-bonsequestrationintheforestsectorinFinlandanddemonstratedthatCsequestrationassessmentsshouldincludenotonlyCinthebiomassoftrees,butalsoCinthesoilandinthewoodproducts[113].Usingtheinstitutionalmechanismsprovidedbycommu-nitybasedforestmanagement(CBFM),PreetPalSinghpredictedthat833.8Tgcarboncanbesequesteredbyenhancementoffor-estcarbonstocksinlowbiomassIndianforests[114].Hashimotoetal.discussedthepotentialcarbonsequestrationinwoodprod-uctsandtheimpactsofthreeaccountingapproaches(IPCCdefault,stock-exchangeandatmospheric-flow)onnetcarbonemissionsof16industrializedcountries[115].RiittaKorhonenetal.illustratedthattheuseofbioenergyfromthereforestedareastoreplacefossilfuelscaninthelongtermcontributemoreeffectivelytothecontrolofcarbondioxideconcentrationsthanpermanentsequestrationofcarbontoforests[116].

5.4.1.Afforestation

Benitezetal.providedaframeworkforidentifyingtheleast-costsitesforafforestationandreforestationandderivingcarbonsequestrationcostcurvesatagloballevelinascenariooflim-itedinformation[117].AscenariogeneratingtoolwasdevelopedbyNiuandDuiker,todetectthehotspotsintermsofCseques-trationpotential(CSP),withtheassessmentofCsequestrationpotentialbyafforestationofmarginalagriculturalland(MagLand)andidentificationofhotspotsforpotentialafforestationactivitiesintheU.SMidwestregion[118].BaralandGuhacomparedthecostsandquantityofcarbonmitigationbyafforestationandfossilfuelsubstitutionbasedonsimplecarbonstocksandflowsassum-ingthegrowthconditionsoftreesinthesouthernUSandfoundthatCsequestrationsequesteredthroughafforestationprojectscanbeusedtoearncarboncreditstomeetcarbonreductiontargets

throughKyotomechanisms[119].Yinetal.introducedaninte-gratedassessment(IA)approachforaCanada–Chinajointresearchprojectthatlinkedforestcarbonsequestration,forestresourcemanagementandlocalsustainabilityenhancement,whichstressestheimportanceofIA[120].

5.5.Miscellaneous

LiuandSmirnovrecordedthatcarbondioxidesequestrationinacoalbedisaprofitablemethodtoreduceGHGsintheatmosphereandtorecoverbyproductmethanefromthecoalseam[121].Avari-ablesaturationmodelwasdevelopedbyGuoxiangLiuandSmirnovtopredictthecapacityofcarbondioxidesequestrationandcoalbedmethanerecoveryandtheresultsoftheirstudyandthedevel-opedmodelscanprovidetheprojectionsfortheCO2sequestrationandmethanerecoveryincoalbedswithdifferentregionalspecifics[122].GargandShuklashowedthatCarbondioxidecaptureandstorage(CCS)canmitigateCO2emissionsfromcoalbasedlargepointsources(LPS)clustersandthereforewouldplayakeyroleinmitigatingbothenergysecurityrisksforIndiaandglobalclimatechangerisks[123].Anunder-researchedalternativeapproach,con-cerningtheapplicationofbiomasstoreduceglobalwarminggasemissions,istoextractfrombiomassblack(elemental)carbon,whichcanbepermanentlysequesteredasmineralgeomassandmayberelativelyadvantageousintermsofthoserisks.MalcolmFowlesreviewedthesalientfeaturesofbiomassblack(elemental)carbonsequestrationandusedahighlevelquantitativemodeltocomparetheapproachwiththealternativeuseofbiomasstodis-placefossilfuels.Blackcarbonhasbeendemonstratedtoproducesignificantbenefitswhensequesteredinagriculturalsoil,appar-entlywithoutbadside-effects.Blackcarbonsequestrationappearstobemoreefficientingeneralthanenergygeneration,intermsofatmosphericcarbonsavedperunitofbiomass;anexceptioniswherebiomasscanefficientlydisplacecoal-firedgeneration.Blackcarbonsequestrationcanreasonablybeexpectedtoberelativelyquickandcheaptoapplyduetoitsshortvaluechainandknowntechnology.However,themodelissensitivetoseveralinputvari-ables,whosevaluesdependheavilyonlocalconditions.Becausecharacteristicsofblackcarbonsequestrationareonlyknownfromlimitedgeographicalcontexts,itsworldwidepotentialwillnotbeknownwithoutmultiplestreamsofresearch,replicatedinother.Thepaperconcludesthateffortsareneededtodiscoverthefea-sibilityandeffectivenessofsuchsequestrationinlocalconditionsandsuggeststhatsequestrationhasmorecarbonsavingpotentialthanelectricitygenerationfrombiomass,becausethelatterisnotefficientenough,butthatthedisplacementofcoalinparticularbybiomasshasmorecarbonsavingpotentialthansequestration[124].CarbonsequestrationthroughtheformationofcarbonatemineralsisapotentialmeanstoreduceCO2emissions.Huntzingeretal.pre-sentedthefirststudyexaminingthefeasibilityofCsequestrationincementkilndust(CKD),abyproductgeneratedduringtheman-ufacturingofcement[125].CelebStewartandMirAkbarHessamiexplainedthemethodsofCO2captureandsequestration,withthetopicofphotosyntheticreaction,whichhaslongbeenknownasanaturalprocessthatcanproduceusefulbyproductsofbiomass,oxy-genandhydrogen,fixingtheCO2,usingaphotosyntheticbioreactorapproach[126].

5.6.Interrelationshipwithbiodiversityandsustainabledevelopment

Theeconomicandlegalimplicationsoftheinterrelationshipbetweencarbonsequestrationprogramsandbiodiversityareana-lyzedbyAlejandroCaparrosandFredericJacquemont.ThecurrenttreatmentofthisissueundertheFrameworkConventiononCli-mateChangeprocesswaspresented;theimplicationsofcarbon

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incentivesforexistingforestswerestudied(basingtheanalysisonanextensionoftheHartmanmodelincludingcarbonseques-trationandbiodiversityvalues)andthen,theexpectedinfluenceofthispolicyondecisionsaboutwhichtypeofforesttouseforafforestationandreforestationwasdiscussed.Anoptimalcon-trolmodelwasusedtoanalyzethechoicebetweentwotypesofforests:(i)onewithhightimberandcarbonsequestrationval-uesbutlower,ornegative,biodiversityvalues;and(ii)onewithlowertimberandcarbonsequestrationbenefits,butwithhighbio-diversityvalues.TherelationshipbetweentheKyotoprocessandtheConventiononBiologicalDiversitywasalsoinvestigated,toassesswhetherornotthelatterisexpectedtohaveanyinflu-enceontheoutcomesobtainedintheanalysisabove.Resultsshowedthatcreatingeconomicincentivesforcarbonsequestra-tionmayhavenegativeimpactsonbiodiversity,especiallyforafforestationandreforestationprograms[127].RobBailisdiscussedthelinksbetweensustainabledevelopmentandcarbonseques-trationasaclimatechangemitigation(CMM)strategy,withafocusonLatinAmerica,whichhashostedthemajorityofseques-trationactivitiestodate[128].RegionalCarbonSequestrationPartnerships(RCSP)intheU.S.indeterminingandimplementingthetechnology,infrastructureandregulationsmostappropri-atetopromotecarbonsequestrationindifferentregionsofthenationisreviewedbyLitynskietal.,indicatingtheinterrela-tionshipbetweentheCsequestrationandtheregionalvariations[129].

5.7.Economicaspects

KeywanRiahietal.analyzedthepotentialsofcarboncap-tureandsequestrationtechnologies(CCT)inasetoflong-termenergy–economic–environmentalscenariosbasedonalternativeassumptionsfortechnologicalprogressofCCT.Inordertogetareasonableguidetofuturetechnologicalprogressinmanag-ingCO2emissions,pastexperienceincontrollingsulfurdioxide(SO2)emissionsfrompowerplantswerereviewed.Bydoingso,a“learningcurve”forCCTwasquantified,whichdescribestherela-tionshipbetweentheimprovementofcostsduetoaccumulationofexperienceinCCTconstruction.Thelearningcurvewasincor-poratedintotheenergy-modelingframeworkMESSAGE-MACROandgreenhousegasemissionsscenariosofeconomic,demographic,andenergydemanddevelopmentwereframed,wherealternativepolicycasesleadtothestabilizationofatmosphericCO2concen-trationsat550partspermillionbyvolume(ppmv)bytheendofthe21stcentury.Threetypesofcontributorstothecarbonemis-sionsmitigationwerequantified:(1)demandreductionsduetotheincreasedpriceofenergy,(2)fuelswitchingprimarilyawayfromcoal,and(3)carboncaptureandsequestrationfromfossilfuels.Duetotheassumedtechnologicallearning,costsoftheemissionsreductionforCCTdroprapidlyandinparallelwiththemassiveintroductionofCCTontheglobalscale.ComparedtoscenariosbasedonstaticcostassumptionsforCCT,thecontributionofcarbonsequestrationisabout50%higherinthecaseoflearning,resultingincumulativesequestrationofCO2rangingfrom150to250bil-lion(109)tonswithcarbonduringthe21stcentury.Also,carbonvalues(tax)acrossscenarios(tomeetthe550ppmvcarboncon-centrationconstraint)arebetween2%and10%lowerinthecaseoflearningforCCTby2100.Theresultsillustratethatassumptionsontechnologicalchangeareacriticaldeterminantoffuturecharacter-isticsoftheenergysystem,indicatingtheimportanceoflong-termtechnologypoliciesinmitigationofadverseenvironmentalimpactsduetoclimatechange[130].Klassvan’tVeldandAndrewPlantingashowedanalyticallythatifthecarbonpriceincreasesovertime,consistentwithprojectionsfromintegratedassessmentmodels,itbecomesoptimaltodelaycertainsequestrationprojects,whereastheoptimaltimingofenergy-basedabatementprojectsremain

unchanged[131].GreggMarlandetal.describedasystemwherebyemissioncreditscouldberented,ratherthansold,whencarbonissequesteredbutpermanenceofsequestrationiseithernotcer-tainornotdesiredandsucharentalcontractforemissioncreditswouldestablishcontinuousresponsibilityforsequesteredcarbon[132].Man-KeunKimetal.investigatedthedifferentialvalueofoff-setsinthefaceofimpermanentcharacteristicsbyformingapricediscountforland-basedCsequestrationthatequalizestheeffectivepricepertonbetweenaperfectoffsetandonepossessingsomewithimpermanentcharacteristics[133].Assessmentofimplicationsofthecarbonsequestrationpoliciesisnecessaryinordertodeterminewhetherthesesequestrationpoliciescontributesignificantlytotheglobalportfolioofclimatechangemitigationoptions.Dmitryetal.determinedwhethercarbonsequestrationpoliciescouldpresentasignificantcontributiontotheglobalportfolioofclimatechangemitigationoptions[134].

6.Cleandevelopmentmechanism

TheKyotoProtocol’scleandevelopmentmechanism(CDM)wasestablishedin1997withthedualpurposeofassistingnon-AnnexIpartiesinachievingsustainabledevelopmentandassistingAnnexIpartiesinachievingcompliancewiththeirquantifiedGHGemissioncommitments.

ErikHaitesandFarhanaYaminexaminedtheCDMdefinedbytheKyotoProtocol,thesubstantive,proceduralandinstitutionalissuesraisedbytheCDMinthelightofdecisionsadoptedbythefourthConferenceofthePartiestotheUNFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeheldinBuenosAiresandsuggestedpracticaloptionsfortheoperationandgovernanceoftheCDMinacredi-ble,cost-efficientandenvironmentallyeffectivemanner[135].JaneEllisetal.analyzedthedevelopmentoftheCDMportfolioaswellasachievementsoftheCDMtodateinthecontextofwiderpri-vateandpublicflowsofinvestmentintodevelopingcountriesandoutlinedthechangesthatareneeded,totransformtheCDMcon-cepttoabroaderscaleaftertheendofthefirstcommitmentperiodin2012[136].LarryCarpandXuemeiLiureviewedandevaluatedtheargumentssurroundingtheCDMandprovidednewempiricalevidenceconcerningitspotentialbenefits[137].Diakoulakietal.addressedthreequestions:inwhichcountry,whatkindofinvest-ment,withwhicheconomicandenvironmentalreturnandshowedforthefullexploitationoftheCDM,amulti-facedapproachforidentifyingprioritycountriesandinterestinginvestmentoppor-tunitiesineachprioritycountry,isnecessary[138].Gilauetal.addressedthecost-effectivenessofrenewableenergytechnologieslikephotovoltaic–diesel(PVDB),wind-diesel(WDB)andphoto-voltaicwind-diesel(PVWDB)hybrids,inachievinglowabatementcostsandpromotingsustainabledevelopmentsundertheCDM[139].Duicetal.assessedthepossibleinfluenceofCDMandbyassessingacaseofasmallisland,showedthatalthoughtheemis-sionreductiononglobalscaleissmall,thereisagreatpotentialforestablishingastrongmarketpresenceofrenewableenergytech-nologiesindevelopingcountries[140].MiriamSchroederdiscussedabouthowmuchtheCDMcancontributetothedeploymentofrenewableenergiesinChina.WhilethereareatleasttwogeneralbarrierstoutilizingCDMfinanceforREdeployment–namelyhighprojectcostsandtheproofofadditionality–thisarticlearguesthatanappropriatenationalregulationcanleadREtechnologiestoastageofcommercialisationatwhichCDMfinancingcanbecomecrucial.ForanassessmentofthecurrentpolicymixinplaceinChinaforthedeploymentofrenewableenergies,thearticlecom-paresthenationalChineseregulationsforrenewableenergiesandChina’sspecificCDMrulesfortheirimpact:wheredogeneralandCDM-specificregulationsforthepromotionofrenewableener-giesprovidesynergies,wheredoesthepolicy-makingonthese

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twolevelscollide[141].TimilsinaandShresthaanalyzedthegen-eralequilibriumeffectsofasupplysideGHGmitigationoption–thesubstitutionofthermalpowerwithhydropowerinThailandundertheCDM[142].MalteSchneideretal.analyzedhowtheCDMcontributestotechnologytransferandfoundthattheCDMdoescontributetotechnologytransferbyloweringseveraltechnology-transferbarriersandbyraisingthetransferquality[143].ThecriticalissueofwhethertheCDMcanaddresspovertyalleviationandsustainabledevelopmentindevelopingcountrieswasdis-cussedbyBobLloydandSrikanthSubbara,inthecontextofexistingmarketprinciples,transparencyofthemechanism,economicsandthedauntingbureaucraticproceduresinvolvedandconcludedthattheCDM,ifsuitablymodified,canaddresstheaboveissues[144].ActualCDMpracticehasshownthatprojectsarelargelyinitiatedbythedemandofrelativelylow-costcertifiedemissionreductions,leadingtoaseriesofad-hocprojectsratherthanservingtheover-allhostcountries’sustainabledevelopmentneedsandpriorities.Intheaboveframework,CharikleiaKarakostaetal.aimedtodirectCDMtowardsnationalsustainabledevelopmentpriorities,throughtheidentificationofsustainableenergytechnologiesforelectricitygenerationinfiveexamineddevelopingcountries,namelyChile,China,Israel,KenyaandThailand[145].FundingforGHGmitiga-tionprojectsindevelopingcountriesiscrucialforaddressingtheglobalclimatechangeproblem.Byexaminingthecurrentclimatechangerelatedfinancialmechanismsandtheirlimitations,ZhongXiangZhangandAkiMaruyamaindicatedthattheCDM,oneoftheflexibilitymechanismsincorporatedintotheKyotoProtocol,couldoffergreatpotentialinhelpingforeigndirectinvestmenttowardsclimatemitigation,byprovidingcommercialincentivesfortheprivatesectortoinvestinmitigationprojectsandinternaliz-ingexternalitiesassociatedwithmitigationprojects[146].ShresthaandTimilsinaarguedthatwhileanapplicationofpurelyeconomicadditionalitycriterionisessentialtoensuretherealandlong-termmitigationofglobalGHGemissions,itcouldalsolimitthescopeofCDMasaneffectivevehicleforGHGmitigation[147].CurrentdiscussionsontheCDMlacksthetechnicalinputonwhichcar-bonemissionstradingcouldbebasedandMichaelSeeattemptedtopresentestimatesofcapitalcostsofcarbondioxidereductions,addressedmorevitalissuesofequitydistributionandillustratedhowemissionstradingmaybeconductedviaanexchange[148].SudhakaraReddyandBalachandrapresentedafewCDMbusinesscases(forbothruralandurbanhouseholds)anddemonstratedtheirfeasibilityandprofitabilityfromtheperspectivesofallthestakeholdersandconcludedthatthepossibilityofearningprofitsisveryhighfromthesesmallscaleCDMprojectcases,thehighestbeinginthecaseofshiftingfromtraditionaltoefficientfirewoodstoves[149].

6.1.CDM-AR

TheCDMallowsforasmallpercentageofemissionreductioncreditstocomefromafforestationandreforestation(CDM-AR)projects.Zomeretal.conductedaglobalanalysisoflandsuitabil-ityforCDM-ARcarbonsinkprojectsandidentifiedlargeamountsofland(749Mha)asbiophysicallysuitableandmeetingtheCDM-AReligibilitycriteria[150].Smallscaleafforestation/reforestationundertheCDMoftheKyotoProtocolwouldsequesteratmo-sphericcarbonandfacilitatecarbontradingbuttheyfacesignificantimplementationchallengesamongtheruralpoorhouseholdsandcommunitiesthataremeanttoadoptandbenefitfromthem[151].Theimplicithydrologicdimensionsofinternationaleffortstomitigateclimatechange,specificallypotentialimpactsoftheCDM-ARprovisionsoftheKyotoProtocolonglobal,regionalandlocalwatercyclesareexaminedbyAntonioTrabuccoetal.[152].

7.Mitigationandadaptation

Thepotentialfordevelopingsynergiesbetweenclimatechangemitigationandadaptationhasbecomearecentfocusofbothclimateresearchandpolicy.Therearealsoincreasingcallsforresearchtodefinetheoptimalmixofmitigationandadaptation[153].Thediagrammaticrepresentationofclimatechange,adap-tationandmitigationisimportantinconceptualizingtheproblem,identifyingimportantfeedbacksandcommunicatingbetweendis-ciplines,withamorerefineddistinctionbetweenadaptationandmitigation[154].XinshengLiuetal.foundthatemphasisonissuesolutionsisplacedmoreonmitigationstrategiesthanonadapta-tionbehaviorsandthatbothgovernmentalandnon-governmentalactionsandresponsibilitiesaresuggestedfordealingwithcli-matechange[155].PielkeJrdiscussedthelimitationsofmitigationresponsesandtheneedforadaptationtooccupyalargerroleinclimatepolicy[156].AlanInghametal.expressedthatmostoftheanalysistodatehasfocusedonthecasewheretheactionsavailabletosocietyarejustthemitigationofemissionsandwherethereislittleornoroleforlearning[157].Tolexpressedhisviewthatmiti-gationandadaptationshouldbeanalyzedtogether,astheyindeedare,albeitinarudimentaryway,incost–benefitanalysisofemis-sionabatementandrecommendedthatfacilitativeadaptationandmitigationnotonlybothreduceimpacts,buttheyalsocompeteforresources[158].KatarinaLarsenandUlrikaGunnarssonOstlingdis-cussedtheinter-relationshipsbetweenadaptationandmitigationbyexaminingtheprocessesofcitizenparticipationinconstruct-ingscenariosandapplyingtheconceptsofresilience,vulnerabilityandadaptivecapacityandarguedthattensionarisingfromclimatestrategiesrelyingoneitheradaptationormitigationstrategiesorcombiningboth,warrantfurtherexamination[159].TheresultsoftheanalysisdonebyNichollsandLowesuggestedthatamix-tureofadaptationandmitigationpoliciesneedtobeconsideredforcoastalareas,asthiswillprovideamorerobustresponsetohuman-inducedclimatechangethaneitherpolicyinisolation[160].JuliaLaukkonenetal.viewedthatitisnotsufficienttoconcentrateoneithermitigationoradaptation,butacombinationoftheseresultsinthemostsustainableoutcomesandyet,thesetwostrategiesdonotalwayscomplementeachotherbutcanbecounterpro-ductivewithcasestudiesofsuccessfuladaptationandmitigationstrategiessuggestingthatthesesuccessesbetranslatedintolocalcontextsandcommunalizedwiththeinvolvementoflocalauthori-tiesusingparticipatoryapproaches[161].FocusingpredominantlyoncasesfromUSandAustralia,HaminandNicoleGurranidentifiedwhetherthepoliciesaddressadaptation,mitigationorbothandwhetherthepracticesputmitigationandadaptationinpotentialconflictwitheachotherandfoundthathalfoftheactionsidentifiedcontainpotentialconflictstoachievingadaptationandmitigationsimultaneously[162].RobbertBiesbroeketal.discussedtheori-ginoftheadaptation–mitigationdichotomyandalsoaddressedtherelationshipbetweenclimatechangeresponsesandspatialplanning,asthespatialplanningcanfunctionasaswitchboardformitigation,adaptationandsustainabledevelopmentobjectives[163].

8.Economyandemissions

ApositiverelationshipbetweenCO2emissions,themostimpor-tantGHGimplicatedinglobalwarmingandGDPwasshownbyMichaelTucker,examiningthepercapitaincomeandCO2emis-sionsof137countriesacross21yearsandpredictedthathigherincomelevelsleadtoincreasedemandforenvironmentalprotec-tion[164].NehaKhannaexaminedthecostofmeetingtheKyotoProtocolcommitmentsunderalternativeassumptionsregardingtechnologyandtechnicalchange,bymodelingrealGDPasa

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functionofthecapital,laborandenergyinputsandfoundthatthelossinrealGDPduetoKyotocommitmentsisoneandahalftimeshigherthanobtainedunderstandardassumptions[165].YingFanetal.analyzedtheimpactofpopulation,affluenceandtechnologyonthetotalCO2emissionsofcountriesatdifferentincomelevelsovertheperiod1975–2000,usingtheSTIRPATmodelandthemainresultsshowedthatatthegloballeveltheeco-nomicgrowthhasthegreatestimpactonCO2emissions[166].Todate,futurechangeinsocio-economicsystemshasnotbeensufficientlyintegratedwithananalysisofclimatechangeimpactsandclimateimpactassessmentneedstotakeaccountoftwointerrelatedprocessesnamelysocio-economicchangeandclimatechange[167].Tobeyhighlightedthecriticalroleofeconomicsinunderstandingthepotentialmagnitudeofglobalclimatechangeasaproblemforhumansocietyandforassessinganddevelop-ingeffectiveresponsesandfeltthatmuchworksremainintheapplicationofeconomicconceptstoclimatechangeproblems[168].

8.1.Carbontax

RolfGolombeketal.studiedtheoptimaldesignofacarbontaxwhenagroupofcountriesseekstomaximizeitsnetincomeminusitsenvironmentalcosts,whichdependonthesumofCO2emis-sionsfromallcountries.Whenbothproductionandconsumptionofinternationallytradedfossilfuelsaretaxed,aparticularcombi-nationofproducerandconsumertaxesexistswhichisoptimal.Itwasalsoshownthatwiththistaxthesumoftheconsumertaxandproducertaxshouldbeequalacrossallfossilfuelsperunitofcarbon.Ontheotherhand,whenthecooperatingcoun-triesuseataxonconsumption(orproduction)offossilfuelsastheonlypolicyinstrument,thetaxperunitofcarbonshouldingeneralbedifferentiatedacrossfossilfuels.Anempiricalillustra-tionofthetheoreticalanalysiswasalsogiven,assumingthatthecooperatingcountriesarethoseoftheOECD[169].Ahighcar-bontaxforcarbonintensivetradablesectorsinthecooperatingcountrieswillreducetheproductionofgoodfromthesesectorsandhencetheCO2emissionsinthecooperatingcountrieswillalsoreduce.MichaelHoelshowedthatacarbontaxshouldnotbedif-ferentiatedacrosssectorsintheeconomy,providedonecanuseimportandexporttariffsonalltradedgoods[170].ZhongXiangZhangandAndreaBaranziniassessedthemaineconomicimpactsofcarbontaxesandbasedonareviewofempiricalstudiesonexist-ingcarbon/energytaxes,itwasconcludedthatcompetitivelossesanddistributiveimpactsaregenerallynotsignificantanddefinitelylessthanoftenperceived[171].Energytaxesdesignedtocon-trolenergyconsumptionandtoassisttheachievementofclimatechangecontroltargetsundertheKyotoProtocol,arefairlycommoninEUcountries.Yetmanyofthesetaxesbearlittleresemblancetothedesignguidancethatisgivenintheeconomicstextbooks.Politicaleconomyanalysis,inwhichtheinteractionofeconomicsandpoliticalrealityisemphasized,explainsthegapbetweenthe-oreticalidealsandpracticalreality.DavidPearceillustratedtheaboveissuesinthecontextofonetax,theUKClimateChangeLevy[172].

8.2.Emissiontrading

CedricPhilibert’sstudyaimedtoshowhowanemissiontrad-ingsystemcouldworkifsomeparticipatingentitiesareallocatedan“emissionbudget”ornon-bindingtarget,asthiswillallowthemtosellallowancesiftheiractualemissionsarelessthantheirbudgetbutwillnotobligatethemtobuyallowancesiftheiremis-sionsexceedtheirbudget[173].MarcelBraunrecapitulatedhowemissionstradingbecameacornerstoneoftheEU’sclimatepolicyandanalyzedthedevelopmentoftheEuropeanUnionEmissions

TradingScheme(EUETS)[174].EtanGumermansummarizedtheeconomicandcarbonsavingssensitivityanalysiscompletedfortheScenariosforaCleanEnergyFuturestudyandits19sensitivitycasesprovidedinsightintothecostsandcarbonreductionimpactsofacarbonpermittradingsystem[175].UrsSpringergatheredresultsfrom25modelsofthemarketfortradableGHGemissionpermitsundertheKyotoProtocolandsuggestedthatthesecountriescanincreasetheirrevenuesfromsellingpermitsbyrestrictingsup-ply,whichraisesthepermitprice[176].TheconsequencesoftheKyotoProtocolforthefossilfuelmarketsdependonwhichpolicyinstrumentsareusedinordertoreachtheemissiontargets.BjartHoltsmarkandOttarMaestadassessedthesignificanceofinter-nationalemissionstradingfortheoil,coalandgasmarkets,byusinganumericalmodel.ThreedifferenttradingregimesnamelyNorthAmerica,AsiaandEuropeincludingRussiawerecomparedandparticularattentionisdevotedtotheEUproposalaboutlim-itsonacquisitionsandtransfersofemissionpermits.ItwasfoundthattheEUproposalwillbenon-bindingforbuyersofemissionpermitsbutwillsignificantlyconstrainthesaleofemissionper-mitsfromEasternEurope.TheEUproposalwillincreasethelevelofabatementinAnnexBcountriesandwillcauseasharpincreaseinthepriceofpermitscomparedtothefreetradeequilibrium[177].

9.Policies

KatiaSimeonovaandHaraldDiaz-Boneprovidedanoverviewoftheevolvingclimatechangestrategiesputinplacebyindus-trializedcountriestocombatclimatechangeandtocomplywiththeirquantitativecommitmentsundertheKyotoProtocolandalsooutlinedtheportfoliosofpolicyinstrumentsusedbytheindustri-alizedcountriesintheirevolvingclimatechangestrategiesandintheirapproachtowideningthescopeandincreasingthecoverageofthosepolicyinstrumentstoallsectorsandallgases[178].PopiKonidariandDimitriosMavrakispresentedanintegratedmulti-criteriaanalysismethodforthequantitativeevaluationofclimatechangemitigationpolicyinstruments.Themethodconsistsof:(i)asetofcriteriasupportedbysub-criteria,allofwhichdescribethecomplexframeworkunderwhichtheseinstrumentsareselectedbypolicymakersandimplemented,(ii)ananalyticalhierarchyprocess(AHP)processfordefiningweightcoefficientsforcriteriaandsub-criteriaaccordingtothepreferencesofthreestakeholdersgroupsand(iii)amulti-attributetheory(MAUT)/simplemulti-attributerankingtechnique(SMART)processforassigninggradestoeachinstrumentthatisevaluatedforitsperformanceunderaspecificsub-criterion.Argumentsfortheselectedcombinationofthesestandardmethodsanddefinitionsforcriteria/sub-criteriaarequoted.Consistencyandrobustnesstestsareperformed.ThefunctionalityoftheproposedmethodwastestedbyassessingtheaggregateperformancesoftheEUemissiontradingschemeatDenmark,Germany,Greece,Italy,Netherlands,Portugal,SwedenandUnitedKingdom[179].HalTurtondescribedthedevelop-mentoftheenergyandclimatepolicyandscenarioevaluation(ECLIPSE)model,aflexibleintegratedassessmenttoolforenergyandclimatechangepolicyandscenarioassessment[180].Sova-coolandBrownassessedtheadvantagesanddisadvantagesoffightingtheclimatechangethroughlocal,bottom–upstrategiesaswellasglobal,top–downapproachesandconcludedthatinscal-ingthepolicyresponsestoclimatechange,localthinkingmustbecoupledwithglobalandnationalscalesofactioninordertoachievethelevelsofCO2reductionsneededtoavoiddangerousclimateimpacts[181].BruceTonnpresentedanalternativeframe-worktotheapproachcurrentlyembodiedintheKyotoProtocolformanagingglobalclimatechangepost-2012.Theframeworkhastwokeyprovisions.Thefirstisthateachpersonintheworld

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wouldbeallowedanequalamountofGHGemissions,labeledastheequity-firstprovisionandthesecondprovisionfocusesonincorporatingriskconceptsintothesettingofGHGemissionreductions[182].InternationalnegotiationsundertheUNFrame-workConventiononClimateChangecouldtakeseveraldifferentapproachestoadvancefuturemitigationcommitments.Optionsrangefromtryingtoreachconsensusonspecificlong-termatmo-sphericconcentrationtargets(e.g.550ppmv)tosimplyignoringthiscontentiousissueandfocusinginsteadonwhatcanbedoneinthenearerterm.JanCorfeeMorlotandNiklasHohnearguedforastrategythatlaysbetweenthetwoextremesnamelythelong-termtargetsandtheshort-termcommitments.Internationallyagreedthresholdlevelsforcertaincategoriesofimpactsorofrisksposedbyclimatechangecouldbetranslatedintoacceptablelevelsofatmosphericconcentrations.ThiscouldhelptoestablisharangeofupperlimitsforglobalemissionsinthemediumtermthatcouldsettheambitionlevelfornegotiationsonexpandedGHGmitigationcommitments.Thepaperthusconsidershowphysicalandsocio-economicindicatorsofclimatechangeimpactsmightbeusedtoguidethesettingofsuchtargets.Inanefforttoexplorethefeasibil-ityandimplicationsoflowlevelsofstabilization,italsoquantifiesanintermediateglobalemissiontargetfor2020thatkeepsopentheoptiontostabiliseat450ppmvCO2.Ifneweffortstoreduceemissionsarenotforthcoming(e.g.theKyotoProtocolorsimi-larmitigationeffortsfail),thereisasignificantchancethattheoptionof450ppmvCO2isoutofreachasof2020.Regardlessofthepreferredapproachtoshapingnewinternationalcommitmentsonclimatechange,progresswillrequireimprovedinformationontheavoidedimpactsclimatechangeatdifferentlevelsofmiti-gationandcarefulassessmentofmitigationcosts[183].MasamiOnodareportedthatifwearetousesatellitedataasapoten-tialglobalcommonmeasurementtool,thereisaneedtobridgethegapsbetweenobservationmethodsandthepolicyframeworks[184].Recentstudiesonglobalwarminghaveintroducedtheinher-entuncertaintiesassociatedwiththecostsandbenefitsofclimatepoliciesandhaveoftenshownthatabatementpoliciesarelikelytobelessaggressiveorpostponedincomparisontothoseresult-ingfromtraditionalcost–benefitanalyses(CBA).Yet,thosestudieshavefailedtoincludethepossibilityofsuddenclimatecatastro-phes.AndreaBaranzinietal.aimedtoaccountsimultaneouslyforpossiblecontinuousanddiscretedamagesresultingfromglobalwarmingandanalyzedtheirimplicationsontheoptimalpathofabatementpolicies.Theapproachisrelatedtothenewlitera-tureoninvestmentunderuncertainty,andreliesonsomerecentdevelopmentsoftherealoptioninwhichnegativejumps(climatecatastrophes)inthestochasticprocesscorrespondingtothenetbenefitsassociatedwiththeabatementpolicieswereincorporated.Theimpactsofcontinuousanddiscreteclimaticriskscanthere-forebeconsideredseparately.Thenumericalapplicationsledtotwomainconclusions:(i)gradual,continuousuncertaintyintheglobalwarmingprocessislikelytodelaytheadoptionofabatementpoliciesasfoundinpreviousstudies,withrespecttothestandardCBA;however(ii)thepossibilityofclimatecatastrophesacceler-atestheimplementationofthesepoliciesastheirnetdiscountedbenefitsincreasesignificantly[185].TheproblemofdesigningacomprehensiveandefficientpolicypackagetoreduceemissionsofCO2andotherGHGsismorecomplicatedthansuggestedintheexistingeconomicliterature.SchheragaandLearyexaminedthreedifferentimplementationissues.First,thevariationofcost-effectivenessofdifferentenergytaxesasafunctionofthelevelofthemarketatwhichtheyareimposed,secondlytheintegra-tionofdifferentpolicytoolsintoanefficientpolicypackageandthirdthefocusingonallGHGandnotlimitedtoCO2andcon-cludedthatapiecemealapproachtopolicyformationthatfailstoconsidertheseissuesislikelytobeinefficientandunnecessar-ilycostly[186].TonyPratoproposedaconceptualframeworkfor

assessingandmanagingtheecosystemimpactsofclimatechange,whichcanbeusedbytheecosystemmanagerstosystematicallyassessthepotentialadverseimpactsoffutureclimatechangeonecosystemsandidentifybestadaptationstrategiesforalleviatingthoseimpacts[187].Policymakersandwaterresourcemanagersshouldbeawareoftheevolvinginformationonclimatechangeimpactstosounddecisionmakingoncurrentwaterresourcesman-agementactions[188].Considerablequantitiesofbio-availablenitrogenarereleasedintheproductionoffoodandenergy.Anintegratedapproachtonitrogenrelatedenvironmentalproblemswillbemoreeffectiveonallenvironmentalandgeopoliticallevelsandwillthereforemakeformoreefficientandcost-effectivepolicy[189].ClaudiaKemfertinvestigatedtheworldeconomicimplica-tionsofclimatechangepolicystrategiesandparticularlyevaluatedtheimpactsofanimplementationofCDM,jointimplementationandemissionstradingwithaworldintegratedassessmentmodel.Thisstudyelaboratesandcomparesmulti-gaspolicystrategiesandexplorestheimpactsofsinkinclusion.TheeconomicimpactsonallworldregionsoftheUSA’snon-cooperative,freeriderpositionresultingfromitsrecentisolatedclimatepolicystrategydecisionwereexamined.ItturnsoutthatCDMandJIshowevidenceofimprovementintheeconomicdevelopmentinhostcountriesandincreasetheshareofnewappliedtechnologies.Thedecompo-sitionofwelfareeffectsdemonstratesthatthecompetitivenesseffect(includingthespillovereffectsfromtrade)havethegreat-estimportancebecauseoftheintensetraderelationsbetweencountries.Climaticeffectswillhaveasignificantimpactwithinthenext50years,willcauseconsiderablewelfarelossestoworldregionsandwillintensifyifnationshighlyresponsibleforpollutionliketheUSAdonotreducetheiremissions[190].Theanticipatedimplicationsofinternationalenvironmentalpolicystrategiesarecriticalforthesuccessorfailureofinternationalnegotiationsonclimatechangepolicies.PeterNijkampetal.discussedthecom-plexmodelingissuesrelatedtotheincorporationofinternationalenvironmentalpolicymeasuresinoneofthepopularappliedgen-eralequilibriummodelsforinternationaltrade,theso-calledGTAPmodel[191].Approachingtheanalysisofclimatepoliciesfromaspatialorganizationperspectiveisnecessaryforrealizingbotheffi-cientandeffectivemitigationofGHGemissions.Inparticular,itallowsassessingthepotentialcontributionofspecificmechanismsofspatialorganizationandrelatedspatialplanningandpolicytoclimatepolicygoals.Sofar,thisspatialorganizationangleofcli-matepolicyhashardlyreceivedattentionintheliterature.ThemainsectorsignificantlycontributingtoGHGemissionsandsensi-tivetospatialorganizationandplanningisurbantransport.FabioGraziandvandenBerghprovidedaqualitativeevaluationoftheavailablespatialorganizationpolicyoptions,onthebasisoffourstandardEcriterianamely(social)efficiency,effectiveness,equityandenforcementandadecompositionofCO2emissions[192].Amulti-sector,multi-regiontrademodel(MS-MRT)wasdevel-opedbyBernsteinetal.thatfocusesontheinternationaltradeaspectsofclimatechangepolicies[193].AdamRosesuggestedthatconsiderationbegiventoanequitablesharingoftheeconomicimpactsofglobalwarmingpolicy[194].Customaryinternationallawhasthatcountriesmaydoeachothernoharm.Acountryviolatesthisruleifanactivityunderitscontroldoesdamagetoanothercountryandifthisisdoneonpurposeorduetocare-lessness.Impactsofclimatechangefallunderthisrule,whichisreinforcedbymanydeclarationsandtreatiesincludingtheUNFCCC.TolandRodaVerheyenpredictedthatstateresponsibilitycouldsubstantiallychangeinternationalclimatepolicy[195].SteinarAndresenandAgrawalailluminatedtheroleofleadershipexertedbyindividuals,institutionsandnation-statesatvariousstagesoftheglobalclimatechangeregimeandfourformsofleadershipintel-lectual,instrumental,power-basedanddirectional,wereidentified[196].

S.VijayaVenkataRamanetal./RenewableandSustainableEnergyReviews16 (2012) 878–897

893

9.1.Influenceofscienceandtechnology

TherecentlandmarkreportbytheNationalAcademyofSci-encesreviewedthescienceonwhichtheKyotoProtocolwasbasedandconcludedthatthepolicychoicesandthemandatoryreduc-tionsinGHGbythedevelopednationswerebasedonincompletesciencewithsignificantuncertainties,providinganewframeworkforconsiderationofglobalwarmingissues[197].Mossfeltfromhisstudiesthatinfuture,furtherinteractionisneededbetweenthepolicyandscientificcommunitiestohelppolicymakersabet-terunderstandingofthecomplexitiesoftheclimatesystemandtoassurethatthescientificcommunityprovidesinformationthatisusefultoevaluatingalternativeresponsestoclimatechange[198].SandenandChristianofferedsuggestionsforthesituationswhenitcomestonear-termtechnologypoliciesforlong-termcli-matetargetsbasedonsomeinsightsintothenatureoftechnicalchange[199].KhannaandChapmanexaminedthevalidityofstan-dardassumptionsusedinclimateeconomymodelsandexploredthepolicyconsequencesofchangingthemtoreflectactualasopposedtopostulatedtrends[200].Ottoetal.studiedthecost-effectivenessofclimatepolicyiftherearetechnologyexternalitiesandfoundthatcost-effectivenessofclimatepolicyimprovesifitisdifferentiatedbetweentechnologies[201].HenrikLundmadepre-liminaryrecommendationsforpoliciestoencouragetheuseoftheKyotomechanismsasanaccelerationofthenecessarytechnolog-icalinnovation[202].Untilrecentlyendogenoustechnicalchangeanduncertaintyhavebeenmodeledseparatelyinclimatepolicymodels.ErinBakerandEkundayoShittureviewedtheemerginglit-eraturethatconsidersboththeseelementstogetherandindicatedthatexplicitlyincludinguncertaintyhasimportantquantitativeandqualitativeimpactsonoptimalclimatechangetechnologypoli-cies[203].

9.2.Influenceofsustainabledevelopment

Climatechangeandsustainabledevelopmenthavebeenaddressedinlargelyseparatecirclesinbothresearchandpol-icy.Nevertheless,therearestronglinkagesbetweenthetwoinbothrealms.RobSwartetal.focusedonthescientificlink-agesanddiscussedtheopportunitiestheyprovideforintegratedpolicydevelopmentandthenecessitytoconsidertheriskoftrade-offsbetweentheclimatechangeandsustainabledevel-opment[204].BertMetzetal.presentedsomeevidencethatshiftingemphasisfromemissionreductiontosustainabledevel-opmentneedsinthepolicy-makingcancontributesignificantlytorelievingthethreatofhuman-inducedclimatechange[205].AdilNajametal.arguedthatreturningtothebasicprinciplesout-linedintheUNFCCCinsearchingforanorth–southbargainonclimatechangecouldbeachievedonlyifwecouldrealignthepolicyarchitectureoftheclimateregimetoitsoriginalstatedgoalsofsustainabledevelopment[206].AdilNajametal.reviewedhowsustainabledevelopmentwastreatedinpriorassessmentreportsoftheIPCCandpresentedproposalsonhowitmightbeintegratedintotheforthcomingFourthassessmentReport[207].

10.Conclusion

TheThirdAssessmentReportpublishedbytheIPCCin2001states,‘thereisnewandstrongerevidencethatmostofthewarm-ingobservedoverthelast50yearsisattributabletohumanactivities’.Hence,itispossibletomitigatetheclimatechangeandGHGemissionstoacertainlevel,thoughnotcompletely,byhumanbeings.TheClimateChange,MitigationandAdaptationhavebeenreviewedasfollows.

•Thereareprovingfactsfortheimpactofclimatechangeonvariouscomponentsofthebiospherelikeair,water,plants,ani-malsandhumanbeings,which,ifnotactedupon,mayleadtocatastrophes.Climatechangeinfluencesairquality,increasesthedominanceofcyanobacteriainwaterbodies,affectsqualityofdrinkingwater,achangeinthehydrologicalcycle,implicationsonfluvialgeomorphology,rangelimitsofplantspecies,adverseimpactsonwildlife.

•Thecrucialproblemthattheworldisfacingtoday,theglobalwarmingisdiscussed,includingtheglobalwarmingpotential(GWP)anditsinfluenceoneconomy.Climatechangehasasayonfisheries,whichaffectsthemarineeconomy,woolindustryprincipallyonforage,waterresources,landcarryingcapacityandanimalhealth,ontourismaffectingtheGDPby−0.3–0.5%in2050andagriculturebasedontemperaturerise,waterqualityandavailability.

•Thepotentialimpactsofclimatechangeonhumanhealtharesignificant,rangingfromdirecteffectssuchasheatstressandflooding,toindirectinfluencesincludingchangesindis-easetransmissionandmalnutritioninresponsetoincreasecompetitionforcropandwaterresources.Itchangestheepi-demiologyofinfectiousdiseasesandthevector-bornediseaseswillbecomemorecommonastheearthwarmsandimpactsonmortalitythroughillhealth,particularlyamongtheelderly,insummer.

•InadditiontoenergyrelatedR&D,alsoimportantaretheR&DforCO2absorptionandfixationforfundamentalsolutiontoglobalwarming.

•Variousmitigationstrategiesalongwiththeeconomyimplica-tionsarebriefed.

•Carbonsequestration,oneoftheeffectivemitigationtechniques,iselaboratedwithitssub-typesoceanandgeologicalsequestra-tionandsequestrationinagriculturalsoilsandforests.Adequatelong-termmonitoringandmaintenanceofthecarbonseques-trationsites,usingbondingmechanismsshouldbethefutureresearchconcern.

•Thecleandevelopmentmechanism(CDM),oneofthemostrecommendedandpromisingtechnologyformitigation,intro-ducedundertheKyotoProtocolisreviewed.Cost-effectiveandimmediatetoimplementCDMistheneedofthehour.FundingforGHGmitigationprojectsindevelopingcoun-triesiscrucialforaddressingtheglobalclimatechangeproblem.

•Theimportanceofthesynergybetweenmitigationandadap-tationisquoted.Therearealsoincreasingcallsforresearchtodefinetheoptimalmixofmitigationandadaptation.Itisnotsufficienttoconcentrateoneithermitigationoradapta-tion,butacombinationoftheseresultsinthemostsustainableoutcomes.

•Theeconomicaspectsofemissions,includingthecarbontaxandemissiontrading,havebeenstudied.ThelossinrealGDPduetoKyotocommitmentsisoneandahalftimeshigherthanobtainedunderstandardassumptions.

•AhighcarbontaxforcarbonintensivetradablesectorsinthecooperatingcountrieswillreducetheproductionofgoodfromthesesectorsandhencetheCO2emissionsinthecooperatingcountrieswillalsoreduce.

•Theexistingpoliciesandtheamendmentsneededinthefram-ingofnewpolicieshavebeenreviewed.Theportfoliosofpolicyinstrumentsusedbytheindustrializedcountriesintheirevolv-ingclimatechangestrategiesshouldbewidened,increasingthecoverageofthosepolicyinstrumentstoallsectors.Inscalingthepolicyresponsestoclimatechange,localthinkingmustbecou-pledwithglobalandnationalscalesofactioninordertoachievethelevelsofCO2reductionsneededtoavoiddangerousclimateimpacts.

894S.VijayaVenkataRamanetal./RenewableandSustainableEnergyReviews16 (2012) 878–897

•Fourformsofleadershipintellectual,instrumental,power-basedanddirectionalarerequiredforenforcementofglobalclimatechangemitigationpoliciesinthesociety.

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